According to analytical modeling conducted by McKinsey Global Institute at the end of 2018 year, artificial intelligence can make an additional contribution to annual GDP growth by 1,2% for at least the next decade. As a whole, by 2030, AI can provide additional global economic activity of 13 trillion dollars, which will increase its widespread contribution to all industries, along with the introduction of other converting technologies. As of today, AI makes in the world's GDP 1 trillion dollars.
Analysts also suggest that around 70% of companies around the world will accept at least one form of AI by 2030 as part of their scale of activity, while a significant part of large enterprises will use a full range of existing innovations to strengthen existing business lines. To date, the leaders in this direction are the United States and China, which invest heavily in the development and implementation of AI in all possible directions. China, in particular, has made AI part of its five-year development plan and wants to become a technology leader until 2030 year.
Overall, McKinsey's analysis shows that countries that have proven themselves to be leaders in AI - mostly developed nations - can get 20-25% more economic benefits compared to the current level. While developing countries can receive only half of that income. At the same time, the number of demanded professionals in this area will also increase significantly, and probably already after 10 years will reach ten million people.
How can AI affect the company?
McKinsey considered five main categories of artificial intelligence: computer vision, natural language, virtual assistants, automated processes and in-depth machine learning. It is expected that by 2030, about 70% of companies will take at least one type of AI technology, and less than half will completely absorb all five categories.
At the same time, it is possible that artificial intelligence technologies can lead to a gap in productivity between leaders (companies that integrate AI tools at their enterprises over the next 5-7 years) and start-up companies that do not currently use AI technology and are guided only by appropriate prospects.
Leaders are likely to win disproportionately. By 2030, they can potentially double their cash flow (received economic benefits less related investments and transitional costs), which implies an additional annual net cash flow growth of around 6% in the next decade. Leaders, as a rule, have a strong starting base of IT, a higher inclination to invest in AI and positive views on the AI's economic substantiation.
Starters companies, in turn, may face approximately 20-percent decline in their cash flow compared to today's level against the background of an already existing model of expense and income. One of the important factors of the pressure on profit will be the presence of strong competitive dynamics among companies that have already realized the benefits of AI and companies that have just begun its implementation and deployment.
How can AI affect countries?
Potentially, the AI, on the background of its progress, can increase the digital divide between countries with different levels of economic development and understanding the value and benefits of innovation. Each state needs its own strategy, plan, investment and the course of technology implementation, because the level of adoption of the AI and the investment background in all different.
Leaders in the implementation of artificial intelligence - developed Western countries - will be able to increase their advantage over developing countries in scaling the AI by obtaining additional 20-25% of net economic benefits in the next few years compared to today. While developing countries will be able to get around 5-15% at most. Where AI technologies are already well-known, which takes into account and encourages best practices, where the industry has been restructured everywhere for productivity improvements through innovation for more than one year, and incentives to increase investment in AI will be greater. The rest will pull for some time in the tail.
How can AI affect employees?
The demand for jobs can shift from repetitive tasks to those that are socially and cognitively demanding and require more digital skills. Job profiles characterized by recurring activities or requiring a low level of digital skills can significantly decrease as a share of total employment by about 30% by 2030 year. In general, the adoption and absorption of AIs may not have a significant effect on net employment. Probably there will be significant pressure on the demand for full employment, but the total "net" effect in aggregate may be more limited than many fear.
Interesting Facts in Figures
According to the report, Accenture Research and Frontier Economics:
- The more integrated the AI in economic processes, the greater the potential for economic growth - artificial intelligence technologies can increase economic growth by an average of 1,7% in 16 industries by 2035 year. Accenture predicts that saving time, costs and labor in 2035 year will amount to 4,7 thousand dollars. in the airborne aircraft. Key growth areas are cloud, network, and system security, including cloud security strategies across the enterprise.
- Technologies of artificial intelligence can increase the productivity of any industry by more than 40%.
- By 2035, artificial intelligence technologies can boost productivity by 40% or more, doubling the economic growth of at least 12 in developed countries. Accenture believes that the direct impact of AI on profitability is to increase individual efficiency. It is expected that, for example, the US and Finland economies will receive the greatest economic benefits from AI to 2035 year, with each of them reaching an increase in airborne volumes by more than 2%.