In the first half of April, the 2019 experts of the Central Statistical Bureau of Ukraine (CSKA) noted a continuation of the growth of tension in the security sphere, which is directly related to the presidential elections in Ukraine. It can be argued that neighboring Russia has developed a number of power scenarios and created conditions for using such developments during or after an election campaign. In this context, the most dangerous challenge is the result of the second round of the presidential election, when one candidate for President of Ukraine lags behind the other for two to three percent of the vote and tries to accuse the opponent of falsifying election results.
As before, the Kremlin leaves full readiness for large-scale military intervention in order to change power in Ukraine and establish a Russian protectorate. In this regard, the advanced Moscow supports the maximum tension by carrying out attacks and shelling of units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There was a high level of losses from units of Ukrainian troops. The fire attacks and sudden attacks of units of Russian-terrorist groups are aimed at creating and spreading among military thought the lack of proper vertical military-political command of troops, as well as direct sensing the weaknesses of prepared defense.
Undoubtedly, Russia's actions on the front are synchronized with political and sabotage activities throughout Ukraine. Significantly, even the US Department of State has already made a statement that the risk of violence in Ukraine is rising before the second round of presidential elections. Among other things, attention is drawn to the riskiness of demonstrations and crowds.
The most imprint on the security environment will carry out the election results, so some aspects of the election will be considered separately by the CACAA analytical group.
Security aspects of the presidential election in Ukraine
Speaking directly about the emphasis of the election campaign, it is quite obvious that the current head of state was as much as possible focused on using administrative resources, while the key tricks of the manager of the show business and the actor are primarily connected with the creative representations of the new personality of politics and the high level of the acting game. In this case, both candidates actively use and exploit the virtual world of social networks.
What are the main risks during the campaign itself and in the first days after the announcement of the results? Obviously, they are primarily related to point provocations and sabotage that can be carried out using people's creations. Although not necessarily against protesters or mass rallies. Possible and clearly planned sabotage actions against the well-known people in the society in order to sway society and create public opinion about the complete insecurity of the citizens of the country. Time-consuming sabotage is very difficult to identify, but it's easy to move the allegations to one of the candidates. In its propaganda media, Moscow has already proved that it stakes up to the leaders' closest results, but has already created a public opinion that the current presidential campaign "is the most dirtious in the history of Ukraine." Such accents suggest that, given the physical confrontation between the support groups of the candidates, the Kremlin may engage in military intervention in Ukraine.
The use of the leaders of the presidential race of marginal or frankly dirty technologies is also risky.
Among them - the appearance of bordeaux with a portrait of the president of the enemy state, Vladimir Putin. Since the beginning of the election campaign, President Poroshenko has opposed himself to Russia's president, but at the final stage, the acting head of state not only violated the moral and ethical principles, but also indirectly contributed to the heroism-demonization in Ukraine of a man who should occupy the territories and resolve the war. But even greater risk in the boards with the face of the enemy lies in the actual advancement of the idea of the split of society. The former journalist, and now the MP, Mustafa Nayem, has clearly defined it: "If I do not want to support your theft, hypocrisy and deceit, is it also me Putin? Are you serious ?! "
Anatoly Gritsenko, who also participated in the first round of the presidential campaign, supports this idea: "It's dangerous for the country! Such an advertisement and newspapers that are already distributed by Poroshenko's headquarters - the country is deliberately split in half. At 2004 this was done by Russian technologists at the headquarters of Yanukovych. Now it does an active guarantor - guaranteeing the integrity and unity of Ukraine ?! "
Among other things, such a step from the side Petro Poroshenko says: he is focused on unconquerable leadership and uncompromising rivalry; he is ready without any restrictions to violate any rules - laws, ethics, social rules. Such a position of the head of state is threatening and contradictory to the development of society, and it can cause severe protest reactions. Indirectly preparedness for the rigorous steps of the incumbent President is confirmed by other episodes of the campaign: the appearance of the incumbent head of state, without invitation, came to the studio of the 1 + 1 channel (during the political talk show "The Right to Power"), used an advert where the truck shuffles the competitor (that is, , V. Zelensky). A general aggressive, more offensive strategy includes elements that prove that this person has no limitations and is capable of any unpredictable, including destructive steps.
The greatest risk of V. Zelensky's coming to power is the lack of a professional team and the probable consequences associated with it. This is especially true in the security and defense sector. From how, in the event of a victory Zelensky to create a professional team of state managers, the probability of the development of a post-election call depends. Since the expectations of a large part of the "protest" electorate may not be justified, it will quickly lead to a crisis of confidence and, not without exception, to mass riots. Experts also point out the possibility of a potential inhibition of cooperation with NATO - due to the said unprofessional team. However, taking into account the managerial experience of this candidate for the presidency, one can assume that the team is well-chosen and create conditions for the comprehensive development of the country.
Yet, speaking about an external enemy, an analysis of the situation surrounding Russia's influence in the presidential election in Ukraine also shows that Moscow is focusing precisely on parliamentary elections. At the same time, the Kremlin will be most interested in limiting the capabilities of the President of Ukraine and shifting the center of gravity in making key decisions to parliament. Under such conditions, the Russian Federation expects to increase its influence and improve its position, since the Kremlin's rates are related both to the capabilities of the pro-Russian presidential candidate Yuriy Boyko and to the improvement of dialogue rhetoric in the event that Yulia Tymoshenko will have a significant faction. It is important to keep the figure in the lobby as estimated by the experts: a joint rating of former regionalists Yuriy Boyko and Aleksandr Vilkul, whose well-known, to put it mildly, skepticism on the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of Ukraine, is 15,82%. This is a very dangerous outcome for the upcoming parliamentary race, and in the face of Russia's comprehensive intervention (and this is what it is supposed to be), this could be the creation of a ground for an attempt to revenge the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
Most important on the international front
The most significant event for Ukraine for this period was the adoption of a package of measures to enhance security in the Black Sea region at a meeting of Foreign Ministers of the alliance member countries in Washington. The precautionary measure is aimed at halting the aggression of Russia, which, as well-labeled by the observers, seeks to privatize the Black Sea. The fact that Moscow's intention to maximize its control in the region has begun to bother all 29 members of the Alliance, is one of the steps towards the formation of a future anti-Putin coalition and a final stop to the spread of aggression that can be defined as "Russian plague." In general, the issue of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea has become a matter of honor for NATO, but for Ukraine, this issue is of vital importance.
Domestic experts were enthusiastic about the emergence of a reinforced group of ships of NATO member countries in the Black Sea, as well as the statement of the United States permanent representative to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison that NATO is ready to accompany our ships to the Kerch Strait. Such support significantly reduces the threat of an attack on Ukrainian sailors in international waters and is already a practical signal of NATO support from Ukraine.
On the other hand, the Federation Council of Russia 10 in April issued a statement in which it declared a threat to Ukraine "military conflict" with the participation of NATO in the event of violations by Ukraine of procedures for passing vessels through the Kerch Strait.
It also states that "the passage of Ukrainian ships through the Kerch Strait is not a question of the balance of forces or the presence of NATO in the Black Sea region, but only the problem of the compliance of the Ukrainian party with established procedures that are well known to her and used successfully by November 2018 year ".
The general confrontation between Russia and the West continues to present significant risks for Ukraine. In particular, Ukraine can be used as a testing ground for realistic episodes of such confrontation. On the other hand, in the event of a successful use of the situation, Ukraine is able to organize its defense with help, and partly at the expense of NATO. The strategy of Kyiv should be based on the consistency of Euro-Atlantic integration and pragmatism in defending its own national interests.
Reformist efforts of Ukraine. Estimates of the current state
These efforts are made within the framework of "repentance and renewal" of the current head of state. Trying to recognize the mistakes and find a way to resolve them, P. Poroshenko has taken several steps that can give general estimates. Significantly, within the framework of work in this direction, for example, Poroshenko gathered for a conversation at the Bankova public activists.
In general, the current head of state publicly acknowledged staff failures, such as the scandalous Deputy Head of Foreign Intelligence Sergei Semochka (he was released only by 12 in April of this year!), Involvement in the sphere of security and defense of his business partners (obviously, it refers to such individuals as O. Gladkovsky, Y. Kosyuk, B. Lozhkin and others), as well as the failure of communication with civil society.
Specialists note very significant problems with the implementation of the framework Law of Ukraine "On National Security", in particular in the reform of the Security Service, the establishment of a clear, understandable and transparent system for the establishment and implementation of defense industrial policy, including the defense and industrial complex management system, implementation real democratic control in the defense and security sector. During the five years of his power, Poroshenko deliberately did not create a central executive authority to manage the defense industry, holding a lever for himself.
The same is true of the inhibition of the implementation of the provisions of the Strategic Defense Bulletin, approved by the President in the 2016 year, namely on changes in the command and control system, the development of operational (combat, special) forces and other, and so on.
"Interesting" is the current situation. For example, Ukraine has an overview of the security and defense sector in the 2019 year (this includes a defense review, a review of civil security, an overview of the defense industry, intelligence agencies of Ukraine, a nationwide counter-terrorism system, and a review of the state of cyber defense of state information resources and critical infrastructure). However, experts in the security and defense sector themselves admit that it is impossible to do this because of Ukraine's lack of readiness, in particular, the absence of a methodology for carrying out such measures.
Not accepted in Ukraine and a number of long-awaited laws. Namely, the new law on the parliamentary committee on the supervision of the activities of the intelligence services and security services, the new law on the Security Service of Ukraine, the new law on intelligence, the law on the creation and production of armaments and military equipment, the law on military-technical cooperation, the law of offset agreements and others.
However, against the background of general assessments, it is impossible not to mention the success of the current authorities in promoting missile programs. So, in early April, tests of new missile systems: an anti-ship cruise missile "Neptun" and a modernized complex "Villema-M".
In contrast to the previous stages, the entire composition of the coastal baseline system for the PKR Neptun - the mobile command center RCP-360, the unified launching unit of the USPU-360, the transport-charging machine TZM-360 and the transport vehicle TM-360 - were demonstrated. The LCD-360MC is a complex of cruise missiles ground-based with an anti-ship missile R-360 with a range of damage 280 km. The complex is intended for the defeat of cruise ships, destroyers, frigates, corvette, landing ships, tank ships and vehicles operating independently, in the composition of ship's groups and landing units, and coastal radio contrasts in simple and difficult meteorological conditions, in any -any time of day and year, with active fire and electronic counteraction of the enemy.
As far as Vylcha, the missiles of this complex are capable of striking the target almost twice as long as those that are armed with the Armed Forces. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchinov, who personally takes care of the development of domestic missile programs, reminded that in 2018 the mass production of the new Vichy rocket complex, adopted by the Armed Forces, began to be launched in 70, "the missiles of which precisely hit the target at a distance of 130 km". "But our designers and manufacturers continued to work on the further development of missile technology, and today there have been very important tests of the modernized Vylma-M complex, whose new missiles hit the target at a distance of XNUMX km," he said.
Consequently, in general, almost all of the electoral steps are nothing more than a cosmetic facade adornment. In fact, during the entire term of the presidential term, P. Poroshenko deliberately retained "manual management" not only for the Defense Forces, but also for the entire security and defense sector. So, could not ignorance of the existing abuses. In general, "manual management" significantly impedes all reforms in the security and defense sector and creates conditions for abuse, including for corruption.
"Now our main task is to do everything possible to win. Even if you do not succeed, you have to show a decent result. Better losing than doubtful victory. Poroshenko is afraid of delegitimizing his image more than a loss. He will not be able to allow Merkel or Macron not want to give him a hand ", - this quote, an explanation of the current efforts of the Poroshenko headquarters in one of the media with reference to the anonymous source surrounded by the current head of state, allows us to get a complete picture of the" specificity "of the guarantor's personality .
In practice, this means the following: in the event of a victory, it will not be possible or necessary to change Poroshenko's policy. He will apply his managerial experience to continue the chosen line - effectively manage the state for its own positioning and capital increase. The political course of the state can be considered closer to optimal, the emphasis will be on successful foreign policy positioning, slow strengthening of defense capabilities, and the slow establishment of national consciousness. But the slowness and palliative activity did not suit a significant part of the electorate, which did not give voice to the current head of state.