Research

Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears

TsDAKR together with partners from New Strategy Center (Romania), Center for the Study of New Generation Warfare (USA) and Strategic Studies, Center for European Policy Analysis (USA) publish a study titled "Moscow Tears Do not Believe".

The study analyzes the situation after an open act of aggression against the ships of the Ukrainian Navy in the Kerch Strait 25 in November 2018 year. Estimates and suggestions from analysts from Ukraine, Romania and the USA were complemented by former Ben-Hodges US Forces Commander in Europe, who offered his views on the situation.

The main idea of ​​the study is to respond adequately to Russia's open aggression with "deep concern" and "tearful requests". There is no effect on the Kremlin - "Moscow does not believe in tears." The international community must take immediate and concrete steps to stop Russia and punish it for the crimes committed.

In particular, CACDS and partners believe that the Russian aggression against Ukraine and, in particular, the open aggression of the RF Armed Forces against the ships of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, 25, November 2018, requires systematic and rapid steps to punish the aggressor and change the military-strategic balance in the Black Sea region.

In particular, in the military-strategic sphere it is considered expedient to significantly increase the presence of the Naval Forces of the partner countries of Ukraine with NATO and the EU. At the same time, it is important to maximize contacts between Ukraine and Romania in the field of security and defense at all levels with a special emphasis on the construction of naval capabilities.

In the military-technical sphere, Ukraine should create conditions for the rapid strengthening of the Naval Forces, including the acquisition of surface ships from partners (USA, Canada, UK, Australia, as well as EU countries). It is critically important to receive ships with missile weapons. One of the possible options may be for the years 1-2 years of two or three Oliver Hazard Perry frigates from the United States. At the same time, Ukraine should intensify the implementation of its own concept of a "mosquito fleet" based on the low-speed platforms of the Lan project with an anti-ship missile "Neptune".

In the diplomatic sphere, it is proposed to focus on introducing real, rather than symbolic, sanctions that will have a direct effect on the economic situation in Russia, the creation of a permanent mechanism for controlling international shipping in the Black Sea, the Kerch Strait and the Azov Sea. Insist on guarantees of the freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov and the Kerch Strait. Launch restrictions on Russian ships to ports of partner countries (first of all, the EU, NATO).

With regard to strengthening the role of NATO in the Black Sea, it is proposed:

  • Create a command structure for the Multinational Division in Romania, including the presence of combat elements of the US Army brigade and rotational basis.
  • Continue and intensify NATO training in Romania and Bulgaria.
  • Place in Romania additional elements of air defense systems / missile defense systems up to 2020 year.
  • To place additional elements of the strategic intelligence of the US Army in the Black Sea.
  • Strengthen the intelligence system of the region, including UAVs, as well as surface and underwater autonomous systems and ground elements.
  • Strengthen the NATO naval presence in the Black Sea, taking into account the limits of the Montreux Convention.
  • Continue dialogue with Turkey to strengthen naval cooperation.
  • Increase the timely deployment of military equipment, armaments, and other resources to ensure the deployment of troops on the eastern flank of NATO.

In general, the study substantiates the urgent need for consolidated and rapid action by NATO countries and partners in the Black Sea region to counter Russian aggression. In the opinion of the Central Statistical Bureau, consolidated, active actions of Ukraine and partners can create real conditions for punishment of Russia and change the balance in the region in our favor.