In the world, the methods and forms of warfare are changing rapidly. Ukraine needs to prepare.
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On the eve of the appearance of the first State Defense Plan in Ukraine, of course, with the stamp, the Center for Army Studies, Conversion and Disarmament initiated the creation of an open review under the title: “Strategy for the Development of Ukraine's Effective Defense Potential”. In it, a panel of experts decided to highlight the key capabilities of the nation in organizing optimal counteraction and successful resistance to an enemy who is overwhelming Ukraine by force.
Several interrelated factors have motivated such research. First, the growth of Putin's aggressiveness. Second, there are marked changes in the formula for waging modern warfare. And finally, third, the fading of the world as a result of the coronation crisis, which our group considers, without exaggeration, a chance for the state.
Russia is coming ...
It should be noted that after the frivolous deployment of forces in the Donbass, the Kremlin went on the offensive - in fact, during the pandemic of the notorious coronavirus, in fact, the number of attacks and armed diversions only increased. A series of uninterrupted killings of the Ukrainian military on the eastern front has become unprecedentedly threatening: the casualties are critical and amount to nearly one and a half dozen soldiers each month. Since the days of Ilovaysk and Debaltseve, this is a new peak, it is simply another. But like a worm, it bites the core of the army. This requires a real revision of the defense-building formula, both in terms of the use of weapons and in the field of operational rearmament.
A fierce oil crisis with a peak in prices (possibly a predictor of Putin's fall), a fall in the Kremlin's "tsar" rating, and a whirlwind of a coronavirus - these arguments push the Kremlin to escalate the conflict. Symptomatic and publications of the nuke, which have become active in the media, are symptomatic. “In reality, Ukraine can be either part of Russia or its enemy. The third, unfortunately, has not been given and will never be given, "- publishes" Independent Military Review "the findings of one expert-servant, noting that Ukraine, and not NATO, is the" real adversary "of Russia. This is a serious signal for Kiev.
The world gets used to fighting differently ...
In the last year, a dramatic change in the forms and methods of warfare in the modern wars is particularly striking. Despite the fact that strategic unmanned aerial vehicles (BACs), including high-precision weapons carriers, were used by the US Army in the late twentieth century, the end of 2019 - early 2020 can be considered another stage of major change.
On the one hand, the total cost of purchasing weapons in the world is growing rapidly (SIPRI International estimates that military spending in the world in 2019 has increased to $ 1,92 trillion). Economically powerful countries have continued to expand the value of strategic-level combat systems: according to SIPRI, the share of the five largest countries - the US, China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia - accounts for 62% of global military spending for 2019. For example, in the early 2020s, an influential Iranian general, Kasem Suleimani, was killed with the help of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone and high-precision Hellfire rockets. But the cost of such tanks exceeds $ 16 million. per unit that prevents the mass use of such weapons by the vast majority of countries in the world.
However, against the background of this particular relevance, relatively inexpensive unmanned (remotely operated) platforms of various bases (aviation, land, sea) with impact elements have become widespread. Specialists note their versatility and versatility, allowing the use of a variety of weapons and electronic equipment. Including state-of-the-art electromagnetic ammunition, state-of-the-art electronic warfare (EW) systems, radio electronic reconnaissance (EER) and more.
A striking example of the development of the new trend may be the night attack in September 2019 by ten Saudi Aramco oil-killer drones in eastern Saudi Arabia, which has reduced half of the country's daily oil production. An even more significant result was the massive attack by Turkish strike drones in Syria in late February 2020. During the brief but fierce escalation of the conflict, Ankara struck a number of tangible blows to units of the Syrian army, equipped with fairly modern Russian weapons. This allowed the Turkish media to speak about Ankara's "new military doctrine".
As long as the demon sits in the Kremlin, Russia will remain a monster state. And, speaking of the possibility of confrontation, the role of asymmetric means of counteraction should be emphasized. These should include both purely military capabilities and the potential for non-force counteraction.
Non-violent means designed to prevent Moscow's widespread information terror, conduct information and psychological operations using cyberattacks, social networks and the media. This forces them to concentrate on the development of counter-intelligence, intelligence and special information structures. Russia's war against Ukraine demonstrated the absence of a clear front line that required a multi-level deterrent system.
Unfortunately, there is not even a sign that the draft law has been passed by the Verkhovna Rada Security Service of Ukraine. Meanwhile, there is an urgent need to form a powerful counterintelligence body on the basis of the SBU, capable of building a system of preventing and countering Russia inside Ukraine. It involves not only responding to anti-Ukrainian forces, but also steps forward. And presupposes both the abandonment of functions that are not peculiar to law enforcement agencies, as well as the legislative assignment of the main task of the SBU to neutralize the work of foreign special services in the country.
З by intelligence agencies the matter is a bit simpler as the relevant draft laws are expected to be adopted after quarantine is over.
It seems that the tasks of providing information security should be addressed within the framework of “profile” in all national security agencies. This involves the organization of systemic interaction (the ideal model should be the SBU or the body coordinating the work of intelligence). Cooperation with the public sector and public institutions capable of active information activities should be established, as enshrined in the Law on National Security.
Developing a national intelligence community, Ukrainian reformers should pay attention to responding promptly to new threats from the world's most advanced structures. For example, in February 2020, the US National Counterintelligence and Security Center (a structural unit of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence) published an open part of the US National Counterintelligence Strategy for 2020–2022. Significantly, calling Russia one of the potential threats, the document defines the very essence of the new level of danger as follows: technical tools for the analytical processing of large amounts of information) has enabled a wide range of actors to acquire increasingly sophisticated intelligence methods, tools and technological only previously well-funded intelligence services. These technologies have made it possible for US adversaries to use information as a strategic resource to achieve their economic security goals and influence their competitors. ”
In other words, a technological leap in this area needs immediate response in the direction of technical enhancement of counterintelligence and intelligence.
Power asymmetric capabilities
The Armed Forces they must embody this opportunity by becoming a coherent institution of deterrence. This is likely to happen only with the transformation of the army into a professional, equipped and fully equipped with modern weapons. Despite the complexity of this task, elements of asymmetric counteraction can be actively developed in the Armed Forces. Example, rocket programsthat will hit the enemy strategic objects at a decent distance (300-500 km, and in the future - 1500 km). Interesting observation: when in April this year. problems with the financing of missile programs, director of the Pavlograd Chemical Plant (which supplies fuel for rockets) Leonid Shiman said: "In the case of a new large-scale offensive of Russia with the help of Alder (MLRS with a high-precision range of 70 km rockets, which are mass-produced until 2020. — V.B.) we get a deterrent. It will be a long time for Putin to think whether he should attack Ukraine again and fire at our cities (as the Russians did in 2014-2015), knowing that alder strikes can be inflicted on their critical infrastructure facilities, such as Kam. '. In the Russian Federation, after such a statement, there was a stir under the hysterical screaming of the media. Still, because in this town (two dozen kilometers from the Ukrainian border) they produce critical elements for Russian missile programs, including the hypersonic Zircon rocket.
Aside from rockets, they have asymmetric potential Armed Forces Special Forces. And this is the dismantling of strategic objects in the territory of the enemy or the defeat of his combat units in the locations of deployment (deployment). It is time to mention that the document titled “Vision of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Development of the Armed Forces for the Next 10 Years”, which appeared at the beginning of 2020, stated unequivocally: “Special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should provide“ in the long term - guaranteed fulfillment of special tasks outside Ukraine (subject to necessary amendments to the legislation) ”. Thus, General Khomchak's General Staff, though rightly transferring responsibility to the Council, nevertheless declared that possibility.
Territorial defense (TPO) is another asymmetric opportunity for Ukraine that needs clear legislative regulation. The TPO's ability to block the enemy's actions is obvious and not contestable: one can defeat the army, but one cannot enslave the people - history knows many examples. The development of TPO in Ukraine is hampered by significant differences in the interpretation of its development. The CSDC said that half of the efforts to develop TPO should be undertaken by the local administrations in the fall of 2019. Deputy Secretary of the NSDC, General Sergei Krivonos, believes that “the financing of territorial defense units should be 50 to 50%: half from the budget of the military department, and the second from local administrations. We in the bill stipulate that the financing of the needs of the TPP should be three percent of local budgets and three percent - of the Armed Forces. ” I cannot say, but most likely, these views led to the coordination of the preparation of the TPO (and the draft law) with another Deputy Secretary of the NSDC - General Mikhail Koval. The profile parliamentary committee is, at least, restrained about empowering local administrations.
Another innovation by General Krivonos would be useful for implementation - the official determination that service in the ranks of the TPO is counted as a fixed term. It would be one of the motivating factors. But for now, we are “still driving there” and we can cover ourselves with a coronavirus in our justification.
New technologies in arms - is probably the most effective way of designing the domestic asymmetric potential. The need for a revision of the State Defense Order (DOS) was mentioned above - nowadays Ukraine, as a direct state, is not a wealthy state, must first buy what can be applied today or at least tomorrow. Let's say combat aircraft is not used in the current war, as it is unlikely to be used and built for $ 200 million corvettes (well, except as a flagship of the Navy for parades). And soldiers and officers are dying today - now!
With the creak, the first step has already been made - with the help of military-technical cooperation tools. A year ago, Ukraine purchased a $ 2 million batch of unmanned aerial vehicle (BAC) Bayraktar TB70 from Turkey. After in March this year. these operational-tactical tanks began to prepare for combat use, the issue of creating a joint venture with the Turkish Baykar Defense has advanced. Now, according to the Deputy Director General of the State Concern "Ukroboronprom" Mikhail Morozov, it is being created in the territory of Ukraine and will produce shock unmanned aviation complexes. It is estimated that 51% of this enterprise will be owned by the Turkish side, but it will be joint production and the results can be used both to strengthen the Armed Forces and for deliveries to third country markets.
However, this is a sporadic effort by the state. And there are achievements of private individuals. Of the five private companies operating in the BAC country, two have already mastered the elements. But as killer drones, not reusable rocket launchers. Almost the same situation with land unmanned aerial vehicles. Of the four private companies that have mastered the creation of platforms (there is also a small firing module), at least two are ready to deploy anti-tank missiles. But this cannot be done without the efforts of the state - despite the fact that guided missiles are mass-produced by one of the flagships of Ukroboronprom.
It is recalled that the expert environment has repeatedly reproached the previous president, Petro Poroshenko, that he did not say that he is re-equipping the army, since such a "sluggish" war is beneficial to him. The reproaches are correct, at least in fact. But who is preventing yet another president of the world (or those responsible in his team) from thinking seriously about soldiers? At the end of February 2020, Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree # 59 that was signed by the Cabinet (Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Defense and Ukroboronprom) and its control over the secretary of the Security Council Alexei Danilov. Until May 1 this year no sign of implementation of this decree appeared. Even the started DOS cannot start to be realized. Now it is because the Treasury is blocking payments for armaments. The $ 2020 billion allocated to the Defense Ministry in 21 for “development of weapons and military equipment” hovered in the air… Well, nine billion hryvnias under state guarantees, too. The largest amount of money for rearmament in the whole history of Ukraine may turn out to be the plot of the greatest weapons tragedy. And it's not COVID-19's fault at all.
Finally, I would like to say that the main modern problem of Ukraine is not that nothing is being done, but that everything is being done too slowly.
director of CDAC