CACDS believes that Russia's aggression in the Kerch Strait has brought the modern system of international relations closer to the extreme. Or the existing international institutions responsible for ensuring global peace and security will find the inner strength and resolve to put the Kremlin in its place. Or the world will thrive rapidly to the new legal "Middle Ages" when it is possible to set boundaries where it would be desirable to shoot the warships of other states whenever they want, to close and open international waters, when the "emperor" comes in different phases of dizziness.
Objectively, on the basis of modern international law, "Putin's mnogohodovochki" has driven Russia into such a maze of international legal traps that it is unlikely that anyone can now help the Kremlin to get out without critical losses for the "empire".
However, this is from a formal point of view. In reality, international law, including the tacit consent of the leading countries of the world, has become a collection of rules that are considered optional. This is a Bible for atheists, moral principles for those who believe in them.
Even after an armed attack on the Ukrainian ships in the Strait that is considered international, and according to the bilateral agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on the Azov Sea - and also the internal waters of the two countries - the EU and the leading countries of Europe (Germany's position is especially important here) did not dare to call it armed aggression. Obviously, the Moscow gas will blunt its heads in Berlin. However, this geopolitical loudness can cost not only Ukraine. If Germany does not announce the recognition of Russian aggression against Ukraine and, accordingly, will not change approaches to participation in gas projects with Russia (first of all, in the North Stream-2), not only the conditional "civilized West" will be on the verge of existence, but it will also be completely concrete NATO organization. Indeed, the open Russian aggression against the European country of Ukraine puts NATO with specific questions: is NATO ready to balance Russia's aggressive actions in Europe? Is NATO ready to act as a military-political structure, not a "club of interests"? Is NATO ready to declare respect for existing international law as the highest value that keeps the modern world on the verge of existence? If NATO swallows Russian aggression in the Kerch Strait, the effectiveness of this structure will turn from rhetorical to practical.
The impotence of the UN does not make sense any more to talk. A format that assumes that a country that directly aggresses in Europe can veto any action by this organization transforms the United Nations into a venue for the Russian comedy show. The reform of the UN Security Council should take place. Or Russia "reform" the world into a monster that is simply swallowing the Security Council as unnecessary.
CACDS believes that the Ukrainian Navy sailors, now in Russian captivity, fulfilled their task before the death threat and did not allow Russia to turn the Black and Azov Seas into a Russian lake. Now, Ukraine, and there is hope - with the support of our allies of the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic States - clearly aware of the scale of the enemy's threats and intentions. Moreover, the open Russian aggression against the ships of the Ukrainian Navy in the Sea of Azov is the reason for the use of the mechanisms of the Budapest memorandum. Signatories have every opportunity to punish Russia. We hope that the United States and Britain will act more resolutely than in the 2014 year.
Regarding the military component - Ukraine needs urgent assistance to build the naval composition of the Ukrainian Navy. Our allies can help us.
Also, it is worth proposing the creation of a base for the permanent rotation based on the Allied ships in the Naval Forces of the Ukrainian Navy.
The development of domestic ships and missile weapons is another urgent task.
A martial law can add concentration to completing these tasks. Although the main thing is our internal readiness to oppose Russia. Since the Kremlin will focus its efforts on our internal vulnerabilities. Because with the outside - too much trouble.