Theoretical aspects
World wars are civilization processes. So many people take part in them, that at a civilization level of study these processes can be considered as objective and can be studied through the scientific methodology, but not through the humanitarian expert one. In my opinion, all interpretations of historical processes of such scale have the following systematic shortcomings in the methodological approach:
- There is a fragmentation of scientific knowledge. Some historians study military components, others examine economical components and the rest are engaged in social constituent. But pieces of this mosaic cannot assemble the overall civilization picture as it’s very difficult to compare data from various subject matter fields.
- Chronology to evaluate processes has not been correctly chosen. World wars cannot be analyzed on the basis of their chronology, by way of prerequisites for wars, course of hostilities, outcomes and aftermath of wars. Word wars are the part of a considerably greater and large-scaled project which should be interpreted.
- There is still a strong presence of ethical constituent which prevents from understanding of objective one. There is a point-blank issue – whether we everlastingly stigmatize some and glorify others or we attempt to understand the logic of objective processes. It is impossible to be both in the role of a researcher and a judge.
- There is a dependence of the majority of researchers on existing official interpretations of history, which is supported by the government. It is very important for governments as for customers to get a high quality sciolistic PR- product which would allow manipulating mass consciousness, from school which should foster patriots to pensioners who must believe in official interpretation of history more than in their own memoirs. All interpretations that are in conflict are officially criticized by the clan of “domesticated” and “semi-domesticated” by the government historians. Such treatments are declared to be marginal and are not to be popularized.
Consequently official versions of history cannot be verified that is they are not scientific. We have only to believe or not believe in them. The official version of history as a component of state manipulating system of consciousness cannot teach anything, regardless of the level of democracy in this country. Any effective projection cannot be created on its basis. It is just official history that teaches the thing that teaches nothing. But every scientific interpretation of history must contain projection on its output. Understanding of the past must be verified by uncertainty of understanding that is by predicting of the future on its basis!
Before giving the definition of world wars I want to focus on both this definition particularly and overall interpretation of world wars are not carried out at a historical level. It is implemented at a civilization level of study which is more general over historical one. Cardinal simplification of definitions without meaning loosing takes place by shifting a study of the same object from a more specific focus to a more general one because of changing of the scale of events under consideration.
Here is an example from the period under review. During the battle of Britain a German fighter Messerschmitt Bf.109E withstood a British fighter Spitfire Mk.I. Debates on what fighter had better performance characteristics are discussed to this day. Thousands of experts and veterans who take part in the discussion ground their opinions by placing hundreds of technical, operational and other characteristics. But by shifting from the level of performance characteristics to the strategic one this hundred of data comes to two or three ones. There is a correlation of losses during air clashes between these two fighters (1 shot down Bf.109E compared with 1.2shot down Mk.1), strategic flight range of Bf.I09E and correlation of fighter losses both over friendly and hostile territory which determined the fate of pilots parachuted. To understand at the performance level one should be both a pilot and an engineer. And it should be both an engine operation, aerodynamics and air armament engineer. And a pilot should have battle experience with the use of as German as British fighters. Consolidation of hundreds of characteristic in several ones by shifting from performance to strategic level makes it possible even for a non-expert to compare the fighters in specific conditions of the battle of Britain right the first time. By analogy, by shifting to civilization level of study the major part of historical characteristic from various fields is combined into several civilization ones which are accessible even to a non-expert.
After such introduction one can give a definition of world wars on a basis of f technological civilization development Model. The world war is a large-scale total war, occurring during a phase of explosive accelerated science-technology and cultural development. Such a definition allows to clearly cutting off attempts of different authors to continue keeping a count of world wars. The scale of Korean War does not obviously fall short of the world one. And already Vietnamese war and all the subsequent wars were already in completion time and after the phase of rapid explosive development. They not only were but also will be until the beginning of the next Leap. Thus, on the one hand, the scale of world wars unambiguously indicates these are civilization processes. On the other side they are too short processes that are to be studied through civilization analysis. There is no contradiction in it – all short processes are a part of longer ones which are available for study at a civilization phenomenological level. In civilization terms the First World War, social revolutions, communists and national socialists’ rising to power, and the rapid development of the countries where it took place, the Great Depression and the Second World War are parts of a single civilization process. In different years its different industry components just prevailed in the information field. During world wars naturally a military component prevailed in the information field, in time of social upheavals and transformations a social component dominated and an economic one was prevalent throughout the Great Depression. Actually, all these as well as other components were different industry manifestations of the single civilization process which one is to be studied if we want to understand something at long-term civilization level. But the opposite is also true. It was shown by the example of comparison of the Bf.l09E Messerschmitt and Spitfire Mk.I that strategic level did not reduce to technical and tactical ones. Likewise, no matter how long you study social causes and details of Bolshevicks’ coming to power and the subsequent practice of building socialism you cannot make verifiable long-term conclusions. No matter how detailed the Great Depression is described, anyway you will not get an understanding of its long-term causes and a logic of development expressed in verifiable indicators. The reason is that more detailed phenomenological levels of study are not connected with more general ones. Therefore, when we see an interpretation of communism given by historians as a grandiose socio-economic experiment, in fact it means the absence of interpretation which forecasts can be verified. And recognition of the fact that at the level of social processes study interpretation of communism as a civilization process is not possible in principle. Similarly, when economists try to give their economic i.e. sector interpretation of the Great Depression they fall short of verifiable long- term indicators with forecasts either. And they will not get it because more private (sector) analysis methods cannot formulate verifiable conclusions at more large – scale and long-term phenomenological levels of study in principle. So if we want to understand the objective causes of world wars, the period between approximately 1914 and 1945 must be considered at the civilization and phenomenological level of study. It is necessary to formulate a working hypothesis in form of the most general interpretation of an existing body of historical information, make up forecasts based on a working hypothesis, detail them in line with sector perspective and check these forecasts in part at least. How it should be done before the completion of the term of forecasting was described in a separate article. It will allow elaborating a working hypothesis under the method of a successive approximation. One can also put changes into assessment of veracity of historical sources by removing propaganda falsification and detail interpretation at a sector level. As far as the practice of forecast verification of history interpretation was practically absent, the working hypothesis as the first experimental one, i.e. forecast verifiable interpretation of history can be discussed only in the first approximation. But when using the method of successive approximation just the first one is not only simpler checked but has a maximum practical significance as well. In addition, the first approximation allows formulating a maximally simple formula of the working hypothesis that is understandable for civilization analysis non-specialists and even for schoolboys. In a maximally simple and short form interpretation of the period of history between 1914 and 1945 is formulated on the basis of the technological civilization Development Model as follows – “World wars, social revolutions, and economic shocks of the period between 1914 and 1945 are the manifestation of a civilization inertial crisis of acceleration”. That is an acceleration of science and technology and cultural development. That is all! It is simple to complicate but it is much more complex to simplify the matter. Certainly in this respect this formulation is far from being like Chinese “Time of change” and Ibn Khaldun’s surge of asabiyya or Gumilev’s burst of passionarity which essentially describe the same process. But the technological civilization development Model allows sufficiently specifying this interpretation in detail on sector manifestations both over past and future events. Not only in the distant future, and in the coming 5-10 years. It also allows evaluating a possibility of similar process management in the future.
As I have already written, science and technological and cultural development is a complex, indivisible and the only type of development at the civilization phenomenological level of study. It does not mean there is no other development. It means other types of development, for example, the biological one, are at other levels of study. At the technological civilization level everything comes to single and indivisible science and technological and cultural development and the external environment where it occurs. Exactly this single science-technological and cultural development began to accelerate sharply starting about 1870. During the first 25-35 years nothing special seemed to be happened, just significant acceleration of quantity indicators was observed without their turning into quality ones. There was an increase of capacity without its output. The fundamental scientific discoveries rained like from the horn of abundance, but they did not reach technological, social, geopolitical level and other «sector» levels. As a result the previous generation, i.e. those the peak of which of activity fell on the period from 1840 to 1870, became a generation of classics and founding fathers. And the first coming generation of the epoch of Leap always gets the highest level of asabiyya/ passionarity. This is a generation of prophets, revolutionary leaders, indigenous reformers, geniuses, and villains. In final phase this generation was born roughly from 1870 to 1900. It did not occur due to the particular cosmic rays. There is another cause. It was the first generation completely formed under conditions of sharply accelerated speeds of science and technological and cultural development. They were completely adapted to it. This generation took it as natural and believed it would be from now and forever and it could not be otherwise. They saw fantastic prospects which sharply reveal accelerated speeds of science and technological and cultural development up to the immortality and formation of the society of universal wealth and absence of social contradictions where everyone would be engaged in creativity. In essence it was a repetition of the idea of the kingdom of God on earth from previous phases of rapid development. It was not more rational repetition in form of religions, but in form of ideologies. Why did the Art Nouveau Leap, unlike the preceding ones, bring new ideologies instead of the new religions? As, there was a significant part of countries situated in a favorable zone of balanced colonization in the previous long phase of slow development between Renaissance and Art Nouveau. And this is an area of secular rationality, development of science and democracy and human right demand. No new religion or a reform of old one could just grow on such a rational soil. Therefore new ideologies arose as more rational forms of religions.
On way to the universal bright future there are two obstacles which appear to be quite surmountable to the passionate generation. The first one is that the huge flow of scientific discoveries very slowly and weakly improves life of the majority of people. In a short term, by civilization standards, phenomenal rates of scientific development must be carried down by a technological breakthrough to the domestic level of the remotest provinces. This problem is being solved simply – concentration of resources in the key directions. This solution is universal. It applied in times of Christ, in times of Mahomet, even in times of Bolsheviks. The majority of new world religions in the stage of explosive growth provide resources concentration on the religious base, communism – on a social grounds and national socialism –on the ethnic signs. In terms of a civilization point, it appears, perhaps, this is the best definition of communism and national socialism as ideologies providing concentration of resources on the basis of the social and ethnic characters. It is understandable that in each phase of civilization explosive development these ideologies and religions bear their own name. But all those are a manifestation of a single cyclic civilization process at the level of science-technology and cultural development and external environments. Everything that prevents concentration of resources is announced harmful, obsolete and a hindrance to movement to universal welfare and happiness.
An inequality of initial conditions is another obstacle on the way to the bright future. A result of relatively slow development of the previous centuries in the last incident occurred (it is approximately 1650 – 1870) was the fact that some countries, classes, and social groups received a much more privileged position than others. This is a normal state of the hierarchically structured society. The hierarchy level and its forms are also determined by regularities of civilization development, but it does not refer to the forms now. In this case it is important that, approximately one generation after a start of the phase of a great scientific and technological and cultural Leap, these countries, classes and social groups do not naturally wish to lose neither their single privileged position nor their existing rigid hierarchical structure of society which provides the last one.
It is clear that contradictions caused by unfavorable initial conditions are higher in countries previously deprived of possibility to pursue a balanced colonization of surrounding territories. The level of the hierarchy of rights and stratification of incomes in these countries is noticeably higher. All this makes people realize on a big scale, in the framework of new (being reformed) religion or ideology, the need to replace the old, conservative structure of society, oriented on very or relatively slow speeds of development , with the new dynamic and adapted to sharply accelerated speeds. The scale of contradictions between supporters and opponents of so large-scale transformations between those, who will implement concentration of resources and those who will fund it, is crucial for the Leap of the elapsed century as well as for safety of technological civilization in whole. Inland contradictions as well as those between the countries are resolved by social revolutions which are accompanied by mass diffusion of new religions or ideologies and world wars with widespread conquests and mass casualties resulted from application of new kinds of armament based on the latest technological achievements and mass repressions on ethnic, religious and social reasons. It is clear that the most acute contradictions cannot occur in leading, central countries. Otherwise they would not be as such. Meanwhile they cannot remain marginalized in more backward civilization with weak communication. Therefore all prophets, leaders, and reformers are born and carry out most of their achievements not far away.
The second thirty years, after the beginning of the phase of sharp acceleration of science and technology and cultural development, is the most dramatic and tragic period of great Time of Change of Chinese cultural traditions. It is the time when it becomes especially evident, alas, that practice of civilization development entirely goes beyond any ethical limits of human relations and especially limits of humanism, no matter how much prophets and leaders would speak and write about it.
In course of world wars and revolutions, only the Great Depression stands out on the face of it. It is accurate to see when considering in detail that it is a link of a great civilization process like world wars, social revolutions, and diffusion of new religions and ideologies. When considering the Great Depression one should pay attention to the brightest manifestation of the Great Depression was in the countries where the opponents of new ideologies of communism and national socialism prevailed. At that they prevailed for a reason. These countries were in favorable conditions of a balanced colonization before the phase of civilization scientific and technological and culture development. Particularly favorable conditions emerged in the USA after the end of the Civil War. There were a little worse conditions in Britain and France. They were in the area of insufficient home opportunities for a balanced colonization of numerous colonies. But at the same time it was not even comparable to Russia and Spain of a new period, however, to modern Russia either. I.e. the US, France, and Britain developed more rapidly than others even before the Leap. The structure of their society was oriented towards some higher growth rates from the very beginning. Therefore internal contradictions caused by the Leap were smaller than in countries with unfavorable initial conditions. I.e. the Great Depression began and was the most acute precisely in the center of hierarchical world–system. I.e. new religions and ideologies emerge some earlier in the nearby provinces as well and Great Depressions take place in the center a little later. Upon that, in Toynbee’s terminology, external proletariat of the nearby provinces is revolutionary and in the center – more conservative. And all this is defined by objective parameters of civilization development, which leads to a significant difference of increasing contradictions arising in various parts of technological civilization because of sharp acceleration of speeds of scientific-technological and cultural development. By the way, this difference does not allow new religion-ideology to count on the victory in the center of world-system not only while prophets and leaders who created them are alive but even before the phase of a scientific and technological and cultural Leap completes. I.e. Christ and Luther could not enter Rome as winners under no circumstances. Lenin could not expect a victory of a socialist revolution in the USA, and Hitler – a victory over Britain. If new religions-ideologies are recognized in the center, it happens much later and in completely another form. Not in form of religions-ideologies of external proletariat, but in form of governmental religions-ideologies of empires. But this is a separate topic, therefore we will return to the Great Depression. It is natural that a sharp increase of civilization contradictions caused by gigantic acceleration of speeds of science-technology and cultural development could not but be shown at the level of financial contradictions which at first seem insignificant. But then they are accumulated and a classical dive with numerous “knock-on” effects in industry and geographical directions is observed. We will consider a pair of them. In the phases of slow development currency pegging to the most stable and comfortable resource is natural. That has been gold since long ago. This pegging builds best a confidence in currency because the growth of gold mining can not only be forecasted but it approximates to rates of growth of economy as a whole as well. But in Times of the Changes the golden rule ceases to function. Recall the collapse in gold prices caused by conquistadors who first robbed the New World and then organized gold mining there. In the 20th century the New World available for colonization was not discovered, therefore the rates of gold mining growth catastrophically failed to follow the rates of science and technology and cultural development. And the mass exportation of gold from the USSR could not compensate it. The gold standard became a gold “stranglehold” for rapidly developing economies of central countries. Costs of credit resources for real economy before the Great Depression rose constantly and reached 20%! It is clear it could not continue for a long and led to dramatic consequences. Another factor which caused scaled financial contradictions was a slowdown of acceleration rates in scientific and technological and cultural development. That is the second derivative became less than 0. Starting with the phase of Art Nouveau there was an increase both of speed development and acceleration of this velocity. In the 1920s of the last century maximally possible rates of development were observed. But in the second half of 1920s there was a natural decrease of rates of this development acceleration. It is natural, that technological civilization would have gone haywire the distinguished reader could not read this article because of civilization collapse being occurred long ago. That is the “future shock” according to Toffler was not observed in 60-70s and is not observed now but it was much earlier. And in 60s only the only inertial wave of this shock was observed which had been already running out by that time. It is similar to how a tsunami caused by an earthquake can reach a distant bay in hours after the completion of earthquake itself. Any slowdown begins with reduction of acceleration rates, which exactly occurred on the threshold of and during the Great Depression. Its cyclic historical nature points to naturalness of deceleration also.
Neither civilization collapse nor singularity threatens technological civilization and the future shock has long gone. However, there are no limits to growth either, anyway, at the civilization phenomenological level.
It is understandable this is a simplified, mechanistic notion. But for the first approximation in a series of successive approximations just the mechanistic notion appears the most adequate. And all the volunteers can further check, detail and specify it. The mentioned and other contradictions emerged before the Great Depression and were objective. And afterwards the errors of financial processes administration started to impact on them. And how did the countries get out of the depression? It is clear that a number of financial, management, political, social and other innovations were invented. But all this is at the sector levels of study. But there was nothing new to be invented at the civilization level. Keynesianism, the social state, emancipation, increase of a state share in GDP distribution, priority of human rights, improvement of significance of state propaganda and other transformations are a softer, more conservative variant of radical ideologies of communism and national socialism. The Great Depression sharply accelerated these processes. In essence it became a soft analogue of the Great October Socialist Revolution, having launched the process of a convergence of these systems which finished only with the Art Nouveau expiration. If one believes the practice of Soviet socialism was like a soft version of German national socialism, this series should be prolonged. It should be noted the western socially oriented state that formed between 50s and the first half of 60s of the last century was a soft variant of socialism. And with that civilization terms the difference between them is determined by an only one indicator – focusing on various rates of science and technology and cultural development. National socialism was oriented towards the highest rates of development, Soviet socialism – to slightly slower and western social states – to even slower ones. At civilization phenomenological level of study all other industry differences are reduced to it. Since the Great Depression was a significantly softer shock or transformation, its social, cultural, military components were exhibited far with smaller amplitude. Therefore it was mainly exhibited in economic sphere. But as a whole the Great Depression is in the same row of inertial crises as the First World War, the Great October Socialist Revolution, fascist rise to power in Italy and in Germany – the national socialists and the Second World War.
Projection aspects
At it a brief statement of a hypothesis of objective causes of world wars can be considered completed. There will be no subsequent 300-pages substantiation with examples and pictures. These are humanitarian texts to be grounded and the natural science assumptions are to be verified. They are verified by forecasts. It would be logical to forecast the date of the next world war. It is easy to be done. It can be partially checked up without waiting for the date completion. But the forecast of the next world war date fortunately is devoid of any practical sense. World wars are impossible neither in this nor in the 21th nor in the 22th centuries! Large scale wars will certainly occur. But those will not be the wars, that correspond to the definition of world ones. First, there will be no recurrence of the phase of scientific and technological and cultural Leap in the couple of coming centuries. The great Time of the Changes has passed and the following cannot appear soon. Second, large scale total wars are impossible at least until the next Leap either. Nevertheless one can verify a forecast proposed interpretation of world wars without waiting for the next Leap, but during the nearest decades. The fact is, that according to the model of technological civilization progress on the base of which the interpretation of the World wars is proposed, the post-Soviet crisis observing for a long and the forthcoming crisis of the majority of other countries of the world are completely reverse processes over the reviewed period of world wars, social revolutions, and the Great Depression! Indeed, if the period between1914 and 1945 was a civilization inertial crisis of acceleration, then a forthcoming civilization crisis, which will start with moving of world economic crisis beyond economic frameworks mainly, will be a reverse inertial crisis of slowdown over the last one! Just this forecast of the reverse process allows completely verifying the suggested world wars interpretation without waiting for the other. Most part of processes of the forthcoming revolt will be either contrary or similar to the period of world wars, revolutions and economic crises. Let me remind that we talk about the first, mechanistic approximation, in the method of consistent, ever more detailed approximations. Therefore, as a first thing it is quite sufficiently to prioritize precisely the pros and cons. And to determine which processes will run in the opposite direction, it will be the majority of those, and which ones will be like the processes of the era of 1914-1945.
The forthcoming phase of revolts and the last phase of world wars are similar to the following parameters:
- These both phases occur only once in a cycle of scientific and technological and cultural development of technological civilization. At that, naturally, phases of world wars as civilization crises of acceleration are firstly always observed. And then phases of world revolts as civilization crises of deceleration are observed.
- Both the phase of world wars and the phase of world revolts have approximately equal duration which corresponds to vigorous activity of one generation, i.e. to nearly 30 years.
- Acuteness of both of crises depends on the level of positivity of external conditions
- And the phase of world wars and the phase of world revolts are not only exhibited through the military confrontation but, that is equally important, through economic, scientific and technological, social and cultural rivalry of opposing countries and blocs.
The forthcoming phase of revolts and the last phase of world wars are opposite to the following parameters:
- The world wars occur during maximum rates of scientific and technological development, so illusion of that they make it faster is created. The types of weapons and the tactics of its use change repeatedly. Revolts take place during a slowdown of rates of scientific and technological development. Revolts do not accelerate the development of weaponry. Moreover, its partial simplification occurs with ceasing to apply a range of high tech military achievements of the previous phase of rapid development.
- Concentration of resources to achieve the goal is maximum effective in times of world wars and is not effective in times of revolts. World wars are always total and revolts are always not.
- Phases of world wars take place take place in the context of globalization and phases of world revolts in the context of regionalization
- Phases of world wars are turbulent and are difficult to predict. For example, it is impossible to predict who will win – either the camp of supporters of new religion or ideology or the camp of their opponents. And during phases of world revolts the winners are known in advance. These are those territories and countries which have better external conditions in respect to technological level that was achieved by the end of the last Leap. As a whole revolts are predicted much simpler and more accurately.
- А phase of world wars is a peak of asabiyya or passionarity, that is the time of great prophets, heroes and/or villains, great statesmen. Against this background of epic and legendary events the phase of revolts is seen like faceless time with minimum of passionarity or assabiyya. There are enough villains, but all of them are somewhat primitive and impersonal. There are problems arisen with a search of heroes and no great statesmen as such.
Historical aspects
Naturally, on the one hand scientific civilization prediction can forecast the past with the same error as the future. There is no subjunctive mood in history, but civilization analysis does have it. On the other hand one must bear in mind that existence of phenomenological levels of study are increasingly separated between each other. That is we can predict the past only at the civilization level, but not at the level of eventual history. It means, for example, that we can assert, with a foregone known error, there was no such large scale and long-lasting historical process because it conflicts with regularities of civilization development. But, relying on civilization level of processes understanding, we will never be able to reconstruct the eventual historical sequence of facts because these are different phenomenological levels of study. It is similar to when observing human behavior we cannot study physiology of individual’s organs. And while studying physiology of organs, we will never understand intracellular metabolism of cells which form these organs. Or there is another example. Climatologists can predict climate changes not only in the future, but in the remote past. But in principle climatologists are not able to reconstruct the weather of a certain period, for example, Jurassic one. There is also by the reason of these are different phenomenological levels of study. That is, for example, one can assert that interpretation of Mongol-Tatar Yoke accepted first in the tradition of Russia and then in the Soviet historical tradition bore an impermissibly great error. But no understanding of civilization processes will be able to reconstruct the eventual history of that period. If now an unknown manuscript with another eventual filling or interpretation of the considered period is found, one will be able to conclude how much the description of events contained in it corresponds to regularities of civilization development and how much it is distorted. It is all that can be done under conditions of knowledge fragmentation based on the phenomenological levels of study.
But even such a general civilization picture from above is enough to determine the phases of world wars, economic shocks and social revolutions carrying new religions or ideologies similar to the period of the first half of the 20th century.
So the time of the Reformation, the Renaissance and great geographical discoveries was the nearest by the 20th century phase of world wars. It is both a great Time of Changes and of a time of scientific and technological and cultural Leap. It is also the previous peak of maximum of passionarity or assabiyya. There are several symbolic personalities as Columbus, Charles V, Francis I, Henry VIII, Leonardo da Vinci, Copernicus, Luther, Calvin, Cortes. You can on your own make up an identical list of the passionarity phase of Art Nouveau and you will be convinced in as far as these lists are similar over the scale of introduced personalities, cardinality of transformations being carried out by them and genius. And these are not duplicates that arose in consequence of incorrect historical dating. But these are periodically recurring phases of civilization demand of geniuses and villains, prophets and revolutionaries, leaders and conquerors of peaks. Each phase of world wars has new weapons of mass destruction corresponding to the technological level. In the first half of the 16th century it was linear tactics, field artillery with an artillery convoy, and also firearms effectiveness of which exceeded the effectiveness of crossbows. There are mass repressions based on ethnic, religious or social signs during each phase as well. Nevertheless, it is evident that the relative scale and cruelty of wars, the tragedy of mass repressions in Europe of the first half of the 20th century were significantly higher than in the similar phase of the 16th century. Why did it happen that against the backdrop of a long-term process of decreasing the number of people deceased by violent death? The phase of world wars in the 16th century was significantly softer than in the 20th century because of the considerably best external conditions. Columbus discovered the New World accessible to mass colonization. A virgin land of activity was revealed for passionarity followers which provided massive influx of resources and sharply allowed strengthening social mobility without the necessity to make great social revolutions or fight total wars. Therefore in the 16th century the great Time of Changes in Western Europe was done with shedding hardly any blood.
If one proceeds deeply into the past, an epoch of crusades will be the next phase of the world wars. At this point one should acknowledge that we are aware of this time much less than do not know. And a significant part of a mass of historical information has impermissibly great distortions. How this case of distortion took place we will consider using the example of the Second World War which is closer for us in time frame. Recently everyone has already known the biggest tank battle in the history went on near Prokhorovka where Soviet and German tank armored units clashed at the meeting engagement. As a result of this bloody battle the Soviet troops managed to inflict critically high losses on the Panzerwaffe elite including II and III tank corps armed with the newest Tigers, Panthers, and Ferdinands. Reality was completely opposite to prevailing historical interpretation. To start with the largest tank battle in the numbers of military equipment was not near Prokhorovka in 1943 but near Dubno in 1941. The main thing is that there was no any tank meeting engagement on July 12, 1943 near Prokhorovka as such. On July 11 the Germans moved further, than the Soviet command intended, and captured very powerful positions which under the USSR offensive schemes should be an initial position for the 5-th Guard tank army advance. The Germans under the command of Paul Hausser were aware of the Soviet troops supposed counterblow. Therefore they took on the defensive at night on July 12, brought anti-tank artillery and behind it, in a distance of direct fire placed camouflaged positions of their tanks. Against this wall, starting with inconvenient initial positions and insufficient artillery and aviation support either, the attack of the 5-th Guard tank army crashed with enormous losses for Soviet troops and minimum German ones. In addition, the battlefield remained behind the German side, which even more increased losses of Soviet military equipment. At upon that, neither Panthers nor Ferdinands nor Tigers participated in the battle near Prokhorovka. There were no Panthers and Ferdinands in this direction at all, and all the remaining Tigers were under repair.
Administrative aspects
While observing historical periodic circularity of civilization processes, which are known in the 20-th century as an epoch of world wars, the issue of management possibility evaluation at the civilization level naturally arises. How attractive it would be, by the series of managerial and strategic decisions, prevent the most tragic and dramatic events of history in advance. And, if it is impossible to do with a 100% result guaranteed, it can be provided on a probability basis at least. At first sight, these civilization processes appear to be controlled with a certain probability. It is evident, that in the coming 10-20 years before the predictable beginning of another phase one should dramatically increase (by the example of Isabella I and Ferdinand II) reconnoitering expeditions focused on new worlds discoveries suitable for mass colonization at the existing technology level. In that time it is necessary to significantly increase public expenses for science either. And then, the external conditions may be expected to turn out more favorable than in the end of the 19th century. And new Columbuses will either completely prevent or considerably ease the oncoming phase of world wars. But it is only at the first sight…
Why are we going to correct a course of a world wars phase? It is clear there is a humanistic purpose to reduce the number of victims. But then when considering it in detail we will find out that the proportion of casualties of a scientific and technological Leap events and a burst of passionarity was significantly higher in the 16th century than in the 20th century. That is wars were softer and the number of victims – higher. This is not a contradiction. These were mainly just not military victims and not only in Europe. After discovery of America a large part of indigenous people died from diseases delivered by Europeans. And, on the contrary, if taking into account a mortality rate caused by diseases delivered back to Europe during this period of geographical discoveries, we will find out that a proportion of casualties were considerably higher. The worst of all is that mass mortality rate caused by overseas diseases had been observed for many centuries after completion of the phase of Reformation, Renaissance and Great geographical discoveries. It has been observing until our time. Moreover, a great and still increasing number of victims of tobacco smoking which started its spread in Europe as prophylactic drug after a mass plague epidemic in England should be added. That is discovery of vast territories available for colonization at the achieved technological level does not reduce the total number of victims. Thus the goal of administration is not achieved. One can assume there is an existence of a certain optimum between bloody world wars and subsequent civilization challenges related to insufficient external environments for new spaces colonization and no less acute civilization problems related to their excess. This optimum is shown if there are external conditions which allow the civilization to pursue a balanced colonization. Now it is important for us that to discover in the course of reconnoitering expeditions too much space available for colonization at the existing technology level in a world wars phase is as bad as to discover too little ones. And to plan a result of reconnoitering expeditions in this period in advance is virtually impossible. Or formulating it in terms of my predecessors in civilization analysis, on the eve of Time of Changes it is impossible to assess challenges civilization will face. As well as it is impossible to be prepared for those dangers the civilization will encounter at the initial stage of carrying out a large-scale colonization of new worlds. That does not always happen but just in a short time interval on the eve of another phase of explosive science and technology and cultural development. For example, in the 21th century reconnoitering expeditions which could lead to significant increase of available space for colonization are extremely unlikely. We are witnessing too low rates of science and technology development for intensive breakthroughs and development of spaces now. But extensive large-scale exploration will not produce any expected results either, when key areas have been already explored at the existing technological level. And the major breakthroughs are not to be expected any more. And less resources for exploration will be allocated not only during incipient world mutiny, but and after it. The emergence of not only global Columbuses but even local Gagarins in the 21th century is practically ruled out. And even in next century either. That is the emergence of new Columbuses is possible only on the eve of the world wars phase when rates of development are already high and great wars, mass repressions, social revolutions, and economic shocks have not already begun. But because it is impossible to determine a result of reconnoitering expeditions in advance, unfortunately, it is also impossible to manage such civilization processes to reduce the number of victims in the next shocks. That is time will come and probability of discovery by new Columbuses of new worlds available for a colonization will significantly increase again. But new Columbuses and new Isabellas and Ferdinands who finance them will not act as before in humanistic purposes to adjust civilization parameters of minimization the number of casualties in the next phase of world wars, proceeding from their personal, corporate and national interests. And the level of acuteness of confrontations and tension of conflicts of any phase of world wars either in the past or in the future is ultimately determined by external environments.
I have long emphasized that to manage objective processes of civilization development is impossible and the example with a phase of world wars confirms it once again. But there is a positive side in it. If it is impossible to operate civilization parameters, therefore the change of parameters of civilization development is objective and they can also be predicted as meteorologists forecast the weather. That is the thing civilization analysis specializes in. Consideration of weather forecasts as well as consideration of forecasts of change of civilization parameters allows significantly improving management at the individual, corporate and partly at the state levels.
Vladimir STUS
