THREATS AND SCENARIOS
Most analysts agree that in the foreseeable future, Russia will bear a direct military threat. It is noteworthy that of the presented 11 in July of this year The Ministry of Defense of the scenarios of armed conflict against Ukraine is the most dangerous for the state military investigators consider the creation and development of the Kremlin "internal war". But the full-scale use of military force by Moscow is also very real. A similar forecast of military threats is made by the non-state Ukrainian Security Research Institute (UIB). Its main touch: a full-scale military operation using rocket air strikes, with the aim of turning Ukraine into a politically controlled territory of Russia, experts predict in the event that the Kremlin plan of revanchism does not pass. Watching at present a sharp increase in the efforts of the Kremlin to mobilize anti-Ukrainian political forces within Ukraine, UIBB is looking forward to new attempts to create a zone of chaos and scope of subversion and sabotage on parts of Ukraine's territories. The defeat of strategically important facilities, the creation of man-made disasters, the use of paramilitary groups and private military companies to intimidate the population and artificially generate refugee flows are far from fabulous illusions. Finally, the bleeding reality is also the build-up of the intensity of an existing war.
Whether it is possible to confront military threats really, is an existential question for Ukraine. So, it's time to think about organizing comprehensive protection of Ukraine.
ARMY RACE ON A NEW SPIRAL SPEECH
To begin with, we will try to draw attention to some of the world's trends.
In the conditions of the resurgent "cold war" in 2019, the United States created space forces ranging from 15 to 20 thousand. person, following them in the middle of July this year about the intention to go to contactless war also declared France. Not mentioning already about the presentation in July of the first of six new-generation French submarines with winged 1000-kilometer missiles. The rearmament Germany has significantly improved, with an annual defense budget of 42 billion euros. In February, CNN's 2019, referring to a report by US military intelligence, conveyed that Russia and China are developing funds that threaten US space systems, including lasers capable of destroying US satellites.
But not only missiles, satellites and aircraft are occupied by the most advanced players. As part of the newly developed National Intelligence Strategy of 2019, initially launched by the 32, they rushed to develop counter-cyber threats and enhance critical infrastructure by investing enormous resources in artificial intelligence and global automation. Washington aims to surpass the world in such areas as the ability to use new channels for gathering information, their more prompt processing and high-quality assessment. Another uninteresting trend concerns the steady increase in the number of Special Operations Forces (SOS) with 2001 Thousands. man in 70 to 2019 ths. man in 10. But not only is it curious. Now, the concept of the development of the CRS provides for the work of autonomous units for the 12-2019 person. to fulfill such specific tasks as the elimination of information communications, the introduction of social networks and the conduct of cyber attacks. It is worth paying attention to the fact that the budget of these elite forces at 13,6 is set at 2020 billion dollars, but in 165 it is planned to increase to XNUMX billion dollars.
Modest neighboring Poland now has a record-increasing military potential by implementing six large-scale and even 10 less-capable rearmament programs worth 50 billion to 2026. This is the purchase of F-35 Lightning II combat aircraft, combat helicopters, submarines, short-range ARVs with rockets of the new generation. The Patriot medium range has already been purchased, an agreement has been made on the supply of missile systems M142 HIMARS with a range of damage up to 300 km. Polish accents: air defense (two programs in total) and the development of strike forces over long distances.
On the Russian ambitions, we must stop in more detail. By the end of 2019, in the Russian Aerospace Forces, there will have to be 143 new flying vehicles, two regiments SRS X-NUMX and the first C-400 complex Vityaz. In addition to this, in June this year in the Russian Federation have officially announced the launch of pro-anti-missile defense systems C-350 "Prometheus". In the summer of this year The RF Ministry of Defense has adopted a new short-range radius of SSC «Sosna» to protect against attacks from the air in all types of combat. Supplies to the Sun are scheduled for 500, and the RF military is called the ARM chip full automation of the combat work process and the extremely short reaction time.
Russia's long-term plans are extremely ambitious. VCS intends to get 2028 76 new 5 generation Su-57 fighters in place of the previously planned 15. So far, however, there has been a contract for the supply of 2019-2020 in the year. Only two Su-57 engines with the first stage engines. But Russian developers have been on a field that has never been cultivated - in the development of a heavy drone drone. The 2019-m "Hunter-B" masses about 20 tons for the first time lit in the network - the photo is made at one of the Russian airfields.
In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began to enter fundamentally new technology. In April this year In the troops of the Western Military District a complex of electronic warfare "Palantin" has entered. From the OSCE report, it became known that the Russian military experienced a new system of orbital suppression "Tirado-2" in the Donbass, which this year should only enter the Armed Forces. In the south of the Russian Armed Forces, the first mobile naval divisions of the radio engineering troops were formed, which received the radar "Casta 2-2" and an automated air defense system.
As for shock units, another division will appear as part of the Airborne Forces of Russia. The decision to increase the airborne vehicle appeared in February this year, although the Russian Federation now has four such divisions and five brigades.
It is possible that Moscow desperately bluffs. American experts criticized her new rockets, the reputable Swedish Institute for Defense Studies in March this year. came to the conclusion that Russia, which excelled in propaganda, simply overestimates the characteristics of the S-400. And that the missile range of the notorious "Triumph" is 150-200 km instead of the declared 400 km, and when intercepted by a low flying cruise missile, this figure is not more than 20 km. And what is the problem with a new combat aircraft. Because its first Su-57 flight was spent in 2010, and in the seven years only 12 cars were manufactured. Yes, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, despite 20-percent purchasing discounts, does not plan to buy them massively - until 2027, they will only acquire 12 machines, of which only the latter two will be serial ... However, if someone begins to compare the military capabilities of the aggressor with portrayed by President Poroshenko in batches of repaired armored vehicles, it is unlikely that the statistician will be embroiled with an euphoria about the defensive potential of the defending country. Yes, almost all the Soviet defense production divisions have been restored in the Supreme Council, there are modernization of Su-27, Su-25, MiG-29, Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. Yes, there are new radars, drones, PTRK ... All this works well within the framework of the current war, but will not solve the task of the war of the future ...
In the programs of the most trained armies, the controlling force of the troops and the development of the possibilities of strikes on the far approaches are at the forefront. And leaders are ahead in managing and responding, attacks in specific information and communication areas, and instilling artificial intelligence on the battlefield.
UKRAINIAN "MEETING COMPLEX"
With the naked eye, it is clear that the SCU, in their present form, has no opportunity to withstand the global invasion. Alas, five years of the war defense forces were preparing to respond to the "Donbas scenario." Not wishing to admit that it can be considered only as a "prelude" to a large-scale war. Nevertheless, the war is known to win not the armies, but the peoples. And here the advantage is on the side of Ukraine. Only they need to dispose of it properly.
UIBD has developed mechanisms for reducing military threats. In conditions where the increase in the number of UAF and mechanized groupings will not work. The complex of power and non-military capabilities provides for the escape from the linear buildup of the UAF, the revision of the content of the mobs, the revision of views on the deployment of the Territorial Defense Army. But even more needed is the revision of the rearmament of the SCU. The advance of asymmetric possibilities that we proclaimed earlier - in the form of a powerful missile shield of containment and well-equipped Special Operations forces - no one cancels. But, in the face of significant restrictions, Ukraine needs to have short-term and medium-term plans, as well as long-term planning, to build up its military potential.
As calculated in UIBM, the total amount of RF can produce up to 3000 rocket launches. At the same time, experts of the institute are inclined to consider that more than 60% of military objects, bases of concentration of armaments, arsenals and similar Kremlin occupants will try to destroy or neutralize with the help of sabotage and reconnaissance groups and special forces. What Ukraine can oppose to the expanded military car of the Kremlin predator? Allotting for the rearmament of the Armed Forces not more than 600 million dollars a year. Having such cycles of new series production, that mass re-equipment can actually start only with 2021-22. And in what volumes, if we are talking about the missiles "Neptune" and "Alkha", the means of air defense, and even tanks?
Within the framework of one article it is impossible to outline the entire concept of the UIB, which includes the change of the paradigm of the development of the SCU, in particular, the reduction of the cost of maintenance of the Armed Forces from the current 72-76% of the defense budget, at least 60%, the formation of territorial defense, the ideology of the dispersal of forces and means (and even taking them outside Ukraine), etc. But one of the most important tasks is the revision of the priorities of rearmament in the context of the short-term and medium-term planning, - it is possible to briefly illuminate.
In particular, it is a question of the need to determine the time-stamped implementation of three or five priority state programs that will allow the state's combat capabilities to be substantially increased over the next two to three years.
The reader's attention has already been drawn to the fact that the evolution of modern combat systems, materials and information processing tools has created the conditions for the future wars to become network-centric - when all the combat elements are united into a single information-shock system. It is this tendency, as well as the mentioned developmental cycles and mass production of weapons, requires building a hierarchy of priorities for rearmament in such a way that the development of the army envisages improvement of controllability, development of possibilities for detection, suppression and defeat of the enemy, as well as ensuring the sustainability of the forces of defense. On the whole, Ukraine should immediately stop preparing for the wars of the past, opening preparations for future wars. It is transformed into the following priority state programs of rearmament.
GOSPROGRAM ONE IS ONE - IMPROVING THE SYSTEM OF MANAGEMENT. It should include the creation of a unified automated control system (UASU) of the SCU, and in the future - the Ukrainian Armed Forces Defense Forces, with the most important contiguous elements of this system with efficient, secure communications, cyber defense networks, critical infrastructure and telecommunications development.
Competition of modern armies is primarily a competition of control systems in the ability to react to military scenarios. By the way, the tragic events of the current Russian-Ukrainian war, under Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo, clearly indicate that it was the task of managing troops to be a key one. It involves the introduction of modern information technology in the management of troops, combat vehicles and weapons. All components of EASU are designed taking into account the requirements of the integrated information environment - this is a fundamental requirement, without which implementation of the EASA of the forces of defense can not be effective. At the same time, the introduction of the EASU VSU by 30-40% will improve the response to armed aggression and ensure timely deployment (fire reaction) in response to the offensive forces of the enemy. In addition, it will allow to significantly reduce the losses of the personnel of the SCU during the clashes and fire attacks of Ukrainian units. Even testing the elements of the future EASU indicates the possibility of "passing" and implementing military leadership decisions at 12 times faster than now (rising decision rates from several hours to several minutes).
Ukraine is among the world leaders in software development, so this priority is the most acceptable and possible to achieve even in the face of financial deficits. For example, the cost of a complex of automation tools for the headquarters of a separate mechanized brigade is almost identical to the cost of just one BMP, and the effect of its equipment increases the level of the brigade by 15-20%, which is comparable to the 1-2 additional battalions.
Ukraine already has significant achievements in this area, which have been successfully tested at strategic, operational and tactical levels. The design documentation (including basic special software) is developed, which allows manufacturing complexes of automation means, both in stationary and in field execution. All complexes were developed on a modular basis based on typical solutions, which allows them to be used not only in the military sphere, but also for crisis response and the creation of a system of situational centers.
GOSPROGRAMM NUMBER TWO. DEVELOPMENT AND CREATION OF MODERN RADIO-ELECTRONIC EXPLOITATION SYSTEMS (RER) AND RADIO ELECTRONIC STRUGGLE (REB), MODERN DETECTION SYSTEMS, GOALS, SUBSTANCES. The analysis of the elements of the wars of the new generation shows that there is a priority for the formation of intelligence-shock networks and automated protection networks, within the framework of which the time between the discovery of the target and its automatic defeat reduces to the very minimum.
The analysis of the rearmament of the Russian Federation and the country-aggressor of combat tests of the latest combat systems and the latest equipment indicates the enemy's focus on the development of this component. In addition, a number of domestic enterprises of the OPK already has quite significant outputs, which, provided the creation and implementation of the corresponding state program, could provide a significant leap in the production of Ukraine to provide the AVU with these components. An important addition is the fact that, as with the first proposed program, the cycle of production of such systems is several months. Unlike, say, missiles, air defense means or tanks, where the cycle exceeds a year, and sometimes one and a half.
GOSPROGRAMM NUMBER THREE - DEVELOPMENT OF THE PUBLIC PROTECTION SYSTEM. The analysis of military threats reflects the constant build-up of Russia's potential for conducting a large-scale war against the Ukraine of the fourth generation and above. In this case, the ability to effectively resist "attacks from the air" (airplanes, rockets, helicopters) can ensure the failure of the aggressor against such a model of war.
Ukraine has already taken significant steps towards the modernization of Soviet-made air defense assets and has in fact become an active phase in the development of its own mid-range MLA. In this context, the logical and necessary continuous and systemic further work seems to be possible, it can provide a long-term program developed and adopted. This program is not the first one, but the third, for one reason alone, Ukraine has no ability to produce (upgrade) the entire air defense system during 1-2 years. But together with missile programs, the creation and production of air defense assets can be considered the most important priority of medium-term planning. In addition, at this stage, there is no doubt that it is precisely on the provision of this element of the country's military potential that the efforts of politicians, diplomats and special services should be directed. Namely, in the context of the development of a high level of bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and the United States, on the basis of deferred calculations (or as military aid), modern American SRS Patriot and fighters F-16.
GOSPROGRAM NUMBER FOUR - DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-QUALITY PROBLEMS. These are the most important routines for the creation of a missile shield of containment. Given the overall positive results of the implementation of this program (first of all, the projects "Neptune", "Olha", the creation and production of PTRK GosKBB "Luch"), UIB specialists determined this priority as the fourth, not the first, as before. Rocket programs can be attributed to the medium-term perspective - deliveries of missile complexes "Olha" (RSZO), "Neptun" (KS ground, air and sea basing), and "Thunder-2" (OTRK) is not excluded. And for the long term - deliveries of RSZO "Olha-M" (with an extended range up to 130 km), delivery of new cruise missiles based on Neptun technology with 1000 range and more than km. In the context of the development of domestic means of destruction, it is worth focusing on bringing the 524R project to combat helicopters (a complex of helicopter-controlled weapons, where domestic guided missiles are integrated with a range of 8 km). The further development of CB "Yuzhnoe" - NGO "Yuzhmash" deserves attention. The main trumps of these developments and the production of missile defeats is the ability of Ukraine to create such means of destruction on its own, without the participation of foreign partners. This will ensure sustainable development for a long-term future and the realization of the possibility of increasing the range of missiles - up to 1500 km, to the level of the RMSD (according to the classification, mid-range ballistic missiles are deemed to be missiles with a range of 1000 and more than km). It is precisely this kind of weapon capable of providing Ukraine with a missile non-nuclear shield to contain external aggression in the future. But the realization of such projects requires not only the political will of the leaders of the state and resources, but also the time. If in the development of "Olkhii" a unique record has been made - GCKB "Luch" has implemented the project in two years, then a more complex and more extensive missile project will require at least 3-4 years (with the launch of serial production of missiles with a range of 1000 and more than km ) Especially since international political support is also needed - the current Missile Control regime allows Ukraine to create missiles only up to 500 km.
GOSPROGRAMME NUMBER FIVE - DEVELOPMENT OF UNLIMITED PLATFORMS AND WORKPLANTS. Although these are long-term planning projects, they are extremely necessary in the context of Russia's unchanging Russian absorption. At the very least, Moscow will threaten the destruction of Ukrainian statehood in the next decade. Meanwhile, an analysis of modern trends in the development of modern armies indicates the emphasis on the creation of combat unmanned aerial platforms of various bases (air, land, sea) and modern combat robots with various functions. Ukraine does not have the right to lag behind such tendencies, especially, taking into account existing, rather significant developments. The timely transition of Ukraine and unmanned drum systems (platforms) will allow in the future to create and develop the UAF to the level of the most technologically equipped and equipped armies of the world. A special emphasis here is the application of a new ideology - the gradual transition from the use of combat aircraft to the use of drone (reconnaissance-shock) unmanned aeronautical complexes (BAC). Taking into account that Ukraine did not produce combat aircraft, such developments are capable of strategically strengthening Ukraine through the integration into the new BAC of already developed missile defeats.
And one more argument in favor of all the marked directions of development of arms. All these costs, even in the case of positive geopolitical changes and minimization of Russia's military aggression, will not become the resources thrown out by the state wasted. All programs are in close contact with the world of the latest technologies, all of them are aimed at the technological strengthening of the power, strengthening of the positions on the international arena and the global arms market.
Valentin Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, Member of the Board of the Ukrainian Institute for Security Studies
Vladimir Gorbulin, First Vice-President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Head of the Supervisory Board of the Ukrainian Institute for Security Studies, Academician
For the newspaper "Day"