The CIACAR-South Caucasus communicated with Nodar Kharshiladze, a political analyst and one of the founders of the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center (GSAC):
... We have a working version, that with the Orthodox Communist of the Russian state duma everything is simply banal negligence. Like, they sat there where he should not have been sitting. But the matter is not at all.
The visit of Mr. Gavrilov and his chairmanship in our parliament should be considered in the chain of events. This was the result of the processes we have been watching over the last two years. It was clear that this was supposed to happen sometime. I'm talking about a system process small but very important and consistent concessions of Russia, flattering in front of Moscow, about the position "do not offend the Russians, because we have to talk with them later". And now I'm not talking about Russian tourists - let them come, they have nothing to fear. But in the last two years, and this is difficult to realize fully, we were attached not only to the Russian market, not just to the tourist segment, but we were actually tied to Russia as such.
And then "suddenly" everyone was outraged or surprised that Mr. Gavrilov arrived in Georgia, sat down in the chair of the speaker and began to teach us democracy. It fired so that almost does not seem if not for everyone, then for many, but ...
... No one, for example, paid any attention to the event sometime a month ago, when the Russian media "Sputnik" and "ORT" came here, brought experts and organized a seminar on "how to deal with misinformation". There was no Gavrilov there, and nobody sat there in the chair of the speaker of the Georgian parliament. But this is much worse - the main Russian disinformers held a forum on propaganda. And such events did not begin today or yesterday, a similar has recently been put on stream. Yes, there are mostly pro-Russian freaks gathered there from us, but it created an appropriate picture, an atmosphere. Together with economic expansion and so on.
Therefore, let Gavrilov's case be an oversight of the host, but this should have happened sooner or later, we deserved it. The creation of such a system is definitely the fault of the government. The authorities, however, immediately condemned this kind of impudence. I do not exclude that I did it sincerely, which does not cancel her guilt. However, the Georgian society as a whole is guilty. In addition to several groups of activists, non-governmental organizations, the society was "neutral", tolerant, and generally did not notice (did not want to notice) its manifestations. And this, too, has largely led to what we see now on Rustaveli Avenue and not only.
One of the lessons of all this - one state in the struggle against the "hybrid aggression" of the Kremlin is not enough. The press, the non-governmental sector, the leader of opinion - they must be very careful. The Kremlin is very well able to gently and consistently implement and "droplet on the droplet" to influence. The government today is outraged by the precedent, apologizing to the people, but it was costly for us to face it, one man is now at death. Until this tragedy, we all came, largely ignoring what I said. Simply the expansion of the aggressor system reached a critical size, but nobody, especially the authorities, paid special attention to it, moreover, it was strongly encouraged.
Perhaps this will sound paradoxically - I really like how we exploded ... Bidzina Ivanishvili, who was allegedly not on concessions, understood a lot. The resignation of the chairman of parliament took place automatically, the deputy joined the mandate, organizing the reception of Gavrilov. The next parliamentary elections will take place without the majority (let's go with the zero threshold for parties). But the main thing is not even that. The main positive thing is that people woke up, people realized that wrong things were happening to us, that we were just gradually pulled into the paws of Russia. Therefore, this protest is correct. If the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not go horribly, excessively applying force.
The last few years in the minds of people began to erode the principles and foundations of the European, pro-Western, a number of signs of the question appeared - where, after all, we go. And the present protest returned everything to its place, and that's right. Now, most importantly, agree on the rules of the game. The pro-European coalition government should come to the polls. I would very much like to see very young people in parliament who are protesting today, and got up against those who quietly rolled Georgia towards Russia.
And the Kremlin perfectly understands the depth of the threat to itself. Hence the hysterical reaction with the cancellation of flights for tourists and so on. To our great happiness, though, Moscow works systematically, but when it seems to them that something is going wrong, they start to do everything very much. As in the case of Gavrilov, they simply overdo it, without fully understanding it. They know how to dug a foundation, they know well how to spoil something, but then they definitely start to play very roughly.
But it always saves us. What Moscow is doing now is already everything against Russia. They create our anti-Russian agenda on our own, because people are annoying, people are beginning to think. And, most importantly, understand how Trojan horse were and turned out to be Russian tourists in their masses. Again, I have nothing against them. Because most of them are very good people, some, by the way, run away from Putin's regime, just moving to live here. But they "suddenly" became the instrument of pressure on us, the war against us.
The blockade of the tourist flow is a signal of our power. Yes, he can be considered as "not to touch the people's convenient Kremlin", but ordinary people are gradually perceiving. This is a positive thing, as people began to understand how it works, and how it will work further. With the picture "for tourists - everything, the Kremlin - nothing" in the short term looked very attractive, but it turned out to be a trap. This also applies to our wines, our mineral waters (the Borjomi factory, incidentally, belongs to the Russians).
I hope this lesson will be better than the previous ones. And what Russia does now - Mr Putin must be thanked for the fact that he once again showed how dangerous it is to fraternize with the Kremlin.
Communicated Vladimir Kopchak, the head South Caucasian branch CIACR, Tbilisi