Ukrainian Security Sector

Key Challenges and Risks in the Area of ​​Security and Defense in the second half of May, 2019 year

And again elections

His presidency Vladimir Zelensky began his career. Not leaving the parliamentary rostrum, which made an oath to the Ukrainian people a few minutes ago, the newly-made president introduced an adrenaline injection into the electoral artery of the country.

The point in the debate about the pre-parliamentary elections was the sixth in his inaugural speech. The new Verkhovna Rada Ukrainians will choose 21 in July. It is worth saying: Technically, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (KSU) has the opportunity to insert a stick into the wheels of a presidential bike - the submission of the 62 people's deputies regarding the constitutionality of the presidential decree on the dissolution of the parliament was not delayed. The issue will be considered already on Tuesday, June 4, at a meeting of the Grand Chamber of the CCU. If the decision on the inconsistency of the decree of the head of state with the Constitution will appear before the election date, the electoral process will be stopped (the norms of the law provide for a "minimum" term - one month from the date of publication of the decree in official sources).

However, as experience of past crises in the relations between the Parliament and the Presidential Administration testifies, such a scenario is highly unlikely. The oracles of the Basic Law have always followed closely the movement of the political weathervane at Bankova. This was the case in 2007 when Viktor Yushchenko terminated the authority of the fifth convocation of the Council. In 2014, Petro Poroshenko also did not meet any resistance from the judiciary in response to a reset of parliament. Similarly, there are no preconditions that 2019 will be an exception.

The legislative lacuna, which deals with the functioning of the coalition, forms a comfortable environment for the justification of the Zelensky's voluntarist step. Representatives of yesterday's "majority" believe that it completely collapsed only in May 17, after a vague demarche of the People's Front. However, the evidence (name-list) of its existence until the formal collapse of the "coalitionists" did not succeed. Therefore, the full right to life has the opposite view, which is adhered to by the new government and its situational allies on Hrushevsky, 5. According to this position, the coalition "played in the box" at the beginning of 2016, after the withdrawal of the factions "Fatherland", "Self-help" and "Radical party Oleg Lyashko" (RPL). So, Zelensky had the right, in accordance with the constitutional norms, to spoil the people's deputies for summer holidays.

Another question is: was Vladimir Volodymyr guided solely by the logic and demand of the Law? The reason for the extraordinary parliamentary election is quite obvious is the high rating of the "Servant of the People" party.

Probably Zelensky himself and his entourage realize that the popularity of the presidential political forces has not yet gained a solid framework. The whole design of the success story of Zelensky is based on the anti-rating of the traditional elites and the ex-comedian's personal charisma. The first failures of the ruling team (and they will inevitably come) will drag down the high rates of "Servants of the people." In such a disposition, the decision not to postpone the will until the autumn is quite justified.

The brief terms of the campaign multiply the political process. During the coming weeks, racers must hold congresses, form lists, fill their majority candidates with mosques, and, in fact, run a campaign in a context of tight time-lapse and voter's year-old relaxation.

At the height of his presidential rating Zelensky is in a rather comfortable position for the parliamentary attack. The Verkhovna Rada, in which the majority was formed under Petro Poroshenko, lacked the potential for constructive work with the new head of state. This is demonstrated by the first ballot on the initiative of Bankova, who do not find support and half the required number of deputies.

To form a coalition of such a bastard "material" is to waste nerve cells in vain. However, today in the voting and rhetoric around and the parliamentary players are traced the outlines of the future pro-presidential consensus within the parliament.

So, there are currently no doubts among sociologists: the presidential party, the Opposition Platform, the Motherland, and European Solidarity will easily jump over the 5% barrier. At the same time, according to the poll, three factions emerged at the "departure zone": RPN, "Self-help" and "People's Front".

The first scenario involves the formation of a one-party majority (for the first time in the history of the national parliamentarism) as the leader of the preferences of Ukrainians - "Servant of the people". The likelihood of such developments in the expert environment is assessed as rather low, but it is premature to reject such a scenario. The threat of a system with a hegemony party is due to the fact that a newcomer to politics Zelensky can not divide political responsibility with the allied political force. On the other hand, the domination of the pro-presidential power in parliament reduces the role of the legislative body in the system of power, and at the same time declares the restoration of the principles of the parliamentary-presidential republic.

The second scenario, more realistic, describes the creation of a coalition based on the "Servants of the People" with the participation of the "Motherland" (Yulia Tymoshenko claims to be a key role in the social policy vector) and groups of non-factional MPs, among whom a solid representation counts on the so-called "mayor's party "(Read Trukhanov-Kernes), which Igor Kolomoisky actively" advises "the oligarch-newsmaker. Potentially expanding the list of the majority may be small fractions of Anatoly Gritsenko and mini-sensation of the presidential election Igor Smyshka. However, in a solo performance, the backdrop of the presidential race will not be enough for success.

The western Ukrainian alter ego Zelensky - Svyatoslav Vakarchuk has a good chance to overcome the electoral threshold. The long-awaited campaign of the leader of the group "Okean Elzy" in politics is one of the factors that makes an early parliamentary election an attractive prospect for the rogue team of ex-president Poroshenko: for two months, the flow of votes to "Voice" (the party of Vakarchuk) is unlikely to be catastrophic for " European Solidarity "(EU) consequences. In the new parliament, these two political forces can form the pro-Western wing of the opposition while maintaining ideological differences (right-conservatism and right-liberalism). By the way, the rather low EU rating (5-8%) may become a difficult, though not deadly, strike at the ambitions of Peter Alekseevich to lead the opposition.

A significant challenge for the future convocation of the Council is the mobilization of the pro-Russian opposition. In the case of the "Opposition" and "Opposition Platform - For Life" consolidation, the white-pigeon opposition receives the status of the "second political force" of the country. The parliamentary "Renaissance" of the gray cardinal of Kuchma - Victor Medvedchuk testifies to the implementation of the Kremlin's minimum plan on the Ukrainian direction: to create a representative faction under the Council dome that would be at the hands of the White House. However, Putin's figure in this alloys of former regionalists makes the toxic cooperation of the new government with the Opposition - Opoplatform faction, as it automatically draws Zelensky into a process of separate arrangements with the invader.

Actually representatives of the president's team repeatedly emphasized - in "diplomatic" services Medvedchuk needs no more. However, there is also the other side of the medal. A "punishment" on the part of the Kremlin for unilaterally blocking the channel of shadow communication in Kyiv and Moscow may be a slowing down of the dialogue on the release of Ukrainian prisoners, including the Navy's navy. Probably, this "gesture of goodwill" (so-called "pardon") Putin will postpone until a time when Zelensky is willing to let the Russian authorities influence the corridors of power.

Incidentally, in May 25, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on the Law of the Sea obliged the Russian Federation to release (within a month) captured seamen and three floating devices. It is highly expected that the Russian authorities pounded on international law and declared that they were not going to carry out the relevant decision.

Referendum underwater reefs

The newly appointed head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, Andriy Bohdan, "blew up" the domestic media space with a statement that the authorities are considering a referendum on the issue of concluding peace agreements with the Russian Federation. The next day the president himself was forced to clarify the essence of the proposal: "This is not a legislative referendum, but informational: citizens, what do you think? This is a normal conversation with people, "Zelensky assured.

In parallel, the presidential team is assured of working on a bill on a referendum. Only after the adoption of this document, we will have an understanding of what tools the government intends to use to measure the attitude of society to the proposed agreement with the Russian Federation. However, today Bankova does not even have a framework concept for such a "peace". So Bogdan's statement now should not cause panic, since the subject of the plebiscite - hypothetical arrangements with the Kremlin - is absent.

Nevertheless, experts from the Center for the Study of the Army of Conversion and Disarmament (CEDAW) emphasize the well-founded risks that may lead to a referendum on "friendship among peoples." According to Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Central Research and Development Agencyin the wake of a powerful information war, the results of such a referendum can significantly limit Ukraine's position and deprive maneuver opportunities during the negotiation process. Moreover, under certain conditions, the Kremlin is able to create a situation for socio-political exacerbation. " In such circumstances, the expert considers it necessary to pre-implement a deep analysis and information explanation of undesirable consequences so that the citizens' choice is conscious and could not be formed by pro-Russian groups of influence.

In addition, the Constitution of Ukraine should be adhered to as part of the list of issues on which referendums are prohibited. Among such constitutional limitations is the issue of amnesty, which is an integral part of the Minsk agreements, and leads the list of claims of Moscow to the Ukrainian side.

Mikhail Samus, deputy director of the Central Scientific Research Center of Civil Aviation, offers to expand the question of referendum on the panorama. In an interview with Radio Liberty, a specialist remarks: "It is not interesting for Putin to negotiate a peace treaty, since Russia does not participate in the war on the Donbass in terms of Putin, and they do not negotiate on the Crimea. And if Ukraine says that it is ready for compromises - just to complete the war, it's closer to capitulation. " From the position of Samusha, the Kremlin is not motivated to negotiate with Kiev: Russia does not experience problems in the economy or existential threats to the existence of the Putin regime. "The new administration should clearly understand that during the entire period of Ukraine's independence, besides the Grand Treaty and the Black Sea Fleet Treaty, signed by another president and in other circumstances, we have never been able to reach mutually beneficial agreements with Russia. According to Putin, there was only blackmail, provocation and lies ", - the analyst of the Central Research and Development Committee of the Russian Federation said.

International Zelensky Starter

The first personnel appointments of Volodymyr Zelensky caused an ambiguous reaction in society. In particular, the public reacted to the figure of lawyer Kolomoisky Andriy Bogdan - his candidacy contravened the requirements of lustration law.

A very skeptical assessment was also of the close to American lawyer president, ex-mayor of New York Rudolph Giuliani: "You can not appoint a person (Bogdan), which is associated with one of the people who are accused most often. If people gathered around you, who have a close relationship with someone who needs to be investigated (Kolomoisky), it has a terrible look. " Statements Juliani, who on the eve of the announced visit to Ukraine, created a picture of a full-blown crisis between the White House and the Administration of the Ukrainian President. Of course, this is a frank exaggeration. But the background for the future building of relations between the new president of Ukraine and the owner of the Oval Office is lacking in warm shades.

Firstly, in the words of Giuliani, the logic of some Ukrainian political actors can be traced, namely the Attorney General Yuriy Lutsenko. (Particularly in the eyes of the special "love" of both the former head of the American diplomatic mission in Kiev Marie Jovanovich).

Secondly, an advocate from the Trumpet environment is echoed by the overseas presidential campaign 2020 of the year. The Special Representative of the State Department, Kurt Volker, recently called for a distinction to be made between "true relations with Ukraine", contacts with the new presidential team from what appears in American media before the election of the president of the United States. "This is all our internal political narrative," said Volker. Indeed, Volodymyr Zelensky has nothing to do with the 2016 year, so Ukrainian-American relations should not be in the midst of a war of compromising in the United States itself.

Having received a positive conclusion for the commission of the special prosecutor Robert Muller about the lack of conspiracy between the staff of his election headquarters and Russian officials, Trump to become a counterattack.

Obviously, contacts with Moscow are intensifying. Trump has already had a telephone conversation with Putin and proposed to hold a new meeting at the G20 summit in June in Osaka (the previous one was canceled in connection with the Kerch conflict between Russia and Ukraine - at least the official version says this). During the past month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Russia's senior director at the Fiona Hill National Security Council, US Special Envoy for Nuclear Democracy, Stephen Biegan, and special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmai Khalilzad, came to Russia.

In fact, the space for dialogue in Washington and Moscow is rather negligible. This is, first of all, the fate of the START-3 Treaty, which expires in February 2021 year, cooperation in the Afghan direction (talks with the Taliban), coordination of actions in Syria and the situation in Venezuela. Given the composition of American delegations and the election period in our country, the topic of Ukraine is unlikely to become central to the presidents of Russia and the United States. This has its own advantage - today Ukraine is weakened by internal turbulence and is not ready to change the format of negotiations - from Normandy to American-Russian.

The involvement of the White House in the presidential election usually results in the loss of America's focus on foreign policy. This time window for Volodymyr Zelensky should be used to strengthen coordination with Western European partners on the issue of containment of the Russian Federation. As it became known, his first official visit as Head of State Zelensky will be to Brussels 4-5 in June, where the institutions of the European Union and NATO will visit. His administration reports: "The President of Ukraine will inform partners in the EU and NATO about the security situation in eastern Ukraine, discuss ways to intensify international efforts to end the war on the Donbass, exchange views among leaders of the EU and NATO institutions on further key reforms in Ukraine."

Volodymyr Solovyan
Head of the foreign policy projects of the Central Scientific Research Center of Civil Aviation