From the end of 2018, one of the most serious challenges for global and European security and for the international nuclear arms control system was the problem of the Treaty between the former USSR and the United States on the elimination of medium and short-range missiles (hereinafter referred to as DRSMD). This problem has been the subject of discussions, in particular, in the political circles of the United States and Russia, at the NATO and EU level, as well as in the fields of this year's Munich Security Conference.
There are now discussions about the further fate of DRSMD: its denunciation, the maintenance or conclusion of a new agreement with the enlarged membership of the participating States.
DRSMD was signed by 8 December 1987, President of the United States R. Reagan, and General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU, M.Gorbachev, and came into force on June 1 of 1988. In 1992, Ukraine and a number of other CIS states joined Ukraine as a successor to the former USSR.
During the 1988-1991 years, within the framework of DRSMD implementation, the following was eliminated:
- more than 1500 Soviet ballistic missiles terrestrial base (BNDB) medium range (from 1000 km to 5500 km), RSD-10, P-12, P-14 and US-based Pershing-2 and cruise missiles terrestrial BGM-109G Base Range (CPNB);
- more than 1000 of the Soviet SRNB of a shorter distance (from 500 km to 1000 km), OTR-22, OTR-23, and US-based Pershing-1A BCNB.
DRSMD became the first in history contract, which led to a real reduction of the most dangerous class of rocket nuclear weapons. At the same time, its member States retained the right to develop, test, manufacture and deploy ballistic and cruise missiles of medium and short range (hereinafter referred to as RSMS) the sea і airborne base Although the DRSMD is indefinite, each State Party has the right to withdraw from it in the event of exceptional circumstances related to the content of this Treaty that threatens its superior interests. In this case, it should for 6 months to inform of its intention regarding the withdrawal of other States Parties to the Treaty.
In this context It is advisable to briefly summarize in chronological order the formation of the main factors that led in February 2019 to the statements of the US and the Russian Federation regarding their decisions on withdrawal from DRSMD, as well as new challenges and opportunities for Ukraine's defense in case of its denunciation.
It should be noted that Russia the first in 2007 p. questioned the validity of this treaty. At that time, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, stressed the injustice of a situation where only the Russian Federation and the United States were committing to restrictions in the area of FPMD, whereas other countries, in particular, the DPRK, the Republic of Korea, India, Iran, Pakistan, Israel, continue to develop this kind of weapons. Emphasizing the erroneousness of the lack of provision of DRSMD of its time of universal character, V.Putin noted that under these conditions, Moscow "has to think about securing its own security". Later, he stated that DRSMD was a unilateral act of disarmament for the USSR, and for him there are generally unclear reasons for his signing.
However, in our opinion, the main reasons for the inadmissibility of the DRSM for the Kremlin today are the other. Nuclear PCMD terrestrial the bases are necessary for Putin's regime for:
- weakening the Euro-Atlantic community, creating an atmosphere of fear and chaos in Europe through the nuclear blackmail of the European NATO / EU member states, provoking contradictions between them in matters of joint defense;
- the return of Russia "to its natural and only possible state of a large community of increasing and gathering peoples", that is, to realize its neo-imperial and geopolitical ambitions with the use of military force.
- "Asymmetric" counteraction to NATO's eastward advancement and the creation of the US missile defense Euro-segment (missile defense);
That is why the Russian Federation the first I went to the DRSDD disruption, having started with 2008 p. latent development, testing, production and deployment of the medium range 9M729. This missile, according to Western sources, is based on a cruise missile the sea the base of the 3M-14 medium-range missile complex "Caliber-NK" and the CSTN-R-500 (9M728) with the flight range up to 500 km of the Iskander-M missile complex.
According to American experts, the 9M729 missile is capable of carrying a nuclear or conventional combat unit and can range from 2000 km to 5500 km. The open foreign and Russian sources contain a lot of facts about how Moscow disrupted DRSMD, deliberately concealing the true nature of the tests and capabilities of the missile.
Challenge to Ukraine is that the RF at the beginning of 2017 launched two divisions of missile complexes "Iskander-M", equipped with 64-miss 9M729 missiles that are capable of striking objects on the whole territory of our state, including nuclear warheads,. Such a complex was recorded, in particular, during military exercises on the territory of Russia annexed by Crimea.
From my side USA closely monitored the illegal activity of the Russian Federation on the creation of a RLMD. For the first time, information on Russia's violation of DRSMD due to its 9M729 missile test was promulgated in the US media in July 2014 However, the administration of US President B.Obama then refrained from harsh public statements and actions, hoping to reach an agreement with the Kremlin on this issue. Besides 9M729 CPNB, having an average flight range, do not create direct threats to objects in the United States.
Ukraine Relentlessly reacted to the appearance of missiles 9М729 in Russia. In the comments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine July 31 2014 p. deep concern was expressed in connection with the emergence of information on the breach of Russia's obligations under the DRSMD and emphasized "the continuation of the Russian leadership's deliberate course to undermine European and world security, the destruction of international legal bases in the area of strategic stability and arms control."
2014 - 2017 years The US side has repeatedly raised the question of missiles 9M729 meetings with Russian officials and experts. Since Russia's reaction to this was "a denial, intentional confusion and lies," the president USA D.Tramp 20 October 2018 announcing the intention of the US to leave the DRSMD. The following step was grounded as follows: "they [Russia] have violated it for many years ... And we are not going to allow them to break the nuclear deal and create [such] weapons, but if Russia does this, and if China does this and we adhere to the agreement, this is unacceptable »
4 December 2018. Foreign Ministers of the Member States НАТО adopted a statement, accused Russia in developing and adopting missiles 9M729; stressed that this is a serious violation of its obligations to DRSMD and poses a significant risk to Euro-Atlantic security; supported the actions of the United States aimed at ensuring the return of Russia to compliance with DRSMD.
At the same time, the secretary of state USA M.Pompeo put forward Russia's demand for the destruction of the 9M729 missile and stated that its state will suspend its obligations to DRSMD if the Russian Federation for the next 60 days will not return to its execution, which can be confirmed.
Since Russia, as expected, during this period took no steps to return to perform DRSMD, M.Pompeo 1 February this year saying that USA from the next day will terminate the obligation for DRSMD. They will begin the process of getting out of it and if the Russian Federation does not return to fulfillment of the treaty, it will be denounced in 6 months.
At the same time, Trump stated that "we will move forward in developing our own versions of the military response [against the RF DRSMD] and intend to work with NATO and other our allies and partners in order to deprive Russia of any military advantage over its illegal actions »
2 Feb. p. V.Putin reported on the "mirror" answer Russia for US steps towards withdrawal from DRSMD, which includes: suspension of RF participation in this agreement; the launch of research and development work on the modernization of cruise missile launchers the sea complex "Caliber" for them terrestrial basing, as well as creating new ones terrestrial medium-range hypersonic missiles. It is anticipated that the latter will be created on the basis of yet unaccepted by the hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile 3M-22 "Zircon". Since 2015, five tests have been carried out. It has a range of flight to 400 km and speed 4 - 6 Makhov.
V.Putin also said that Russia would not place weapons of medium and short range, if she is with her will appear, neither in Europe nor in other regions of the world, Until such a weapon of American production appears.
Such statements and actions of the Russian Federation should be perceived as another falsehood, given that Moscow de facto withdrew from DRSMD when he 2008. 9M729 begun developing rockets. And so, Russian weapons of medium and short distances already has appeared і located in Europe (so far in the territory of and annexed Crimea) in the absence here "Similar weapons of American production".
In a conflict situation DRSMD holds a neutral position Kazakhstan, Whose Ministry of Foreign Affairs 5 Feb. p. expressed concern about US and Russian decisions to suspend the implementation of the DRSMD, stressed the need for its preservation and efforts to resolve existing problems through negotiation.
President USA D.Tramp, speaking 5 Feb. p. with an annual message to the Congress, confirmed the need to withdraw from the DRSMD in the current situation, expressing hope for reaching an agreement on a new agreement to be joined by China and other states owning the RSMD.
US Administration Concern over China, which has a large arsenal of RSMS, is groundless. The Chinese BMDs and the Middle East and North-East Atlantic Interlaken can attack the US military bases on Huam Island, Japan and other Indo-Pacific countries, as well as American aircraft carrier groups in the northwestern and central parts of the Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean.
Denunciation of the DRSMD will allow the US to quickly rebuild the production of the newest BRNB and CPNB of medium and short range for their deployment in the Indo-Pacific region to curb China, as well as the RF in response to the deployment of it in Europe ground-based hypersonic mid-range missiles. It should also stimulate the Chinese side to engage in a dialogue with the United States on the issue of the RMD, especially since Beijing today is opposed to a "multilateral approach to DRSMD".
As for the position Ukraine, the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine P.Klimkin 6 February this year in connection with the violation of the RF DRSMD said: "We must use everything to protect ourselves. ... And in this situation, Ukraine will have to respond to new challenges. We already have the potential in the field of missile weapons, and what rockets will be needed for us in the future, we will decide. "
Consequences of denunciations of DRSMD and preparation defensive Responses for the creation of Russian missiles banned by them were discussed during a meeting of defense ministers of NATO member states 13-14 Feb. p. in Brussels According to its results Ye.Stoltenberґ NATO Secretary General said that the rocket 9M729 "is not an isolated incident, but part of a broader pattern of investment in modern military power, including nuclear. Besides, they [RF] resorting to their use in neighboring Ukraine» At the same time, the Alliance is not going to "mirror" (missiles on missiles) to respond to Russia.
In this situation, only one country-member of DRSMD took on a pro-Russian position - Білорусь. Its president is A. Lukashenka 1 March m p. accused NATO of intending to deploy RMSM in Ukraine and solidarity with Russia's approaches in the context of a response to the denunciation of the DRSMD, stating support for possible actions by the Russian Federation in this direction.
This Lukashenko, in particular, objected actually provided Ukraine Charter right to self-defense, especially against Russian missiles 9M729 created by Russia in violation DRSMD and on its future hypersonic ground-based medium-range missiles. But, Ukraine alone has to decide how to exercise such a sovereign right, be it by placing on its territory a foreign missile defense system, or foreign missiles of medium range, or the creation of such own missiles to deter aggression in Russia.
It's a pity but Ukraine must Be ready for placement of Russian missile systems "Iskander", "Iskander-M" and complexes with medium-range ground-based hypersonic missiles in the foreseeable future on the territory of Belarus.
4 March m p. V. Putin issued a decree on suspension Russia performance of DRSMD "in connection with violation of the United States of its obligations" under this Agreement "to eliminate the US committed violations of obligations under the said Treaty, or to terminate its action." What Ukraine was officially informed about. This Moscow once again proved that cynicism and lies are the main principles of its policy. After all, Russia's gross repeated violations of this treaty have led to its actual destruction.
Obviously Moscow is interested in denouncing DRSMD from its own geopolitical motives. For Putin's regime, the military force, first of all, rocket-nuclear weapons, became an overwhelming foreign-policy tool, pushing diplomacy to the background.
Russian missile weapons serve as an element of nuclear blackmail to intimidate the West, and in a non-nuclear version, it is actively used in local armed conflicts, in particular with Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. In this context, it is unlikely that the position of the Federal Republic of Germany expressed by representatives of the ruling coalition of the CDU / CSU / SDPU in the Bundestag R.Kizvetter and R.Muttsenich is unlikely to be taken into account, which proposed to eliminate the danger of the emergence of the RSMS in Europe, in particular, by placing disputed missiles 9M729 in the Asian part of the Russian Federation, at a distance exceeding the range of their flight towards Europe.
A rocket-nuclear weapon is also playing an important mobilizing role in Russian political discourse. Given this, under current circumstances, Russia will not agree to the request to destroy the missiles 9M729, as it is perceived in Russian society as "weak" and "loss of face" of the Putin regime.
President of Ukraine P.Poroshenko 6 March m p. noted that Ukraine took an understanding with the US decision to withdraw from DRSMD. He stressed that the collapse of the RF arms control system: prompts Ukraine to seek and find appropriate means for maintaining security; removes certain restrictions and obligations that we have complied with in the past; makes you seriously think over the additional strengthening of state defense.
He stressed that we have the right "to create modern and effective weapons systems for self-defense, including powerful rocket systems. This will become a strategic factor in deterring the Russian aggressor, and will allow troops to provide new capabilities to defeat the enemy on a large scale. "
Further, 9 and 11 March of this year, Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko stressed that the RF destroyed DRSMD. Therefore, our state is no longer bound by restrictions on the range of its own missiles, it needs high-impact rockets, capable of striking targets far in the rear of the enemy. He also identified as one of the priorities of the military policy of Ukraine the creation of the RSMD and the formation of a Containment Force in the Armed Forces on their basis,.
Let's remind that with 1992 in Ukraine there are ongoing discussions about the feasibility of the creation of the IED and the formation of their containment forces. To accomplish this task, in order to provide a "mirror" response to the challenges of the Russian Federation after the denunciation of the DRSMD, it is required, according to various estimates, from 2-X to 4-ies. But Such a very important and complex issue requires a careful analysis.
In addition, it is worth paying attention to the interesting idea of involving Ukraine in creation European The missile defense system announced by Manfred Weber, candidate for European Commission head of state at this year's Munich Security Conference. This idea requires a more detailed discussion, since it is not clear what the missile defense system is about: the American, the process of which is being created in Europe, or an alternative to it, actually European, which France, Germany and other European countries without a U.S. build up to be problematic.
Nevertheless, it is important that in the Western security discourse the relevance of building a missile defense system on the eastern flank of NATO, including with Ukraine.
Given the above, you can make an offensive conclusions.
- It is obvious that the DRSMD will expire at the beginning of September. g. For Russia it is a hindrance in achieving its neo-imperial geopolitical tsiley.Tomu Moscow does not take action to address violations committed by it, while accusing the United States in its "burial" about gambling facts and manipulating them, as demonstrated in this year's message to Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. It is possible to predict that Russia after the US will also come out of the DRSMD.
- In the current situation, this agreement has ceased to be relevant for the United States. Appealing to his violations of Russia, Washington, on completion of the 6-month term with high probability, will emerge from it. This will create the necessary legal grounds for trying to persuade China to conclude a dialogue on the signing of a new US-China trade agreement bilateral the contract on the issues of RMSD.
- At the same time, the United States is capable of quickly switching to tests and production of the newest Middle East and Middle East and North Africa National Forces for their deployment in the Indo-Pacific to curb China and Russia in Europe.
- At the same time, the conclusion of a new multilateral agreement on RSMC today seems unlikely to be realistic. Against this is not only the PRC. It is also unnecessary for India and Pakistan, between which periodic armed clashes arise. The failure of the next US-DPRK summit ended with the denuclearization and disarmament of the latter. Iran rejects the idea of imposing restrictions on its missile programs.
- The question whether the DRSMD will remain after leaving the US and Russia for the current one Belorussia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine must be answered by specialists in international law.
- Denunciation of DRSMD will lead to strengthening the challenges of Ukraine's defense from the RF side as a result of an increase in the number of Russian missile complexes "Iskander-M" from the intermediate range of 9М729. Over time, the adoption and deployment of missile complexes with medium-range ground-based hypersonic missiles will take place. These Russian state-of-the-art facilities are capable of striking objects throughout the territory of Ukraine, while in the Armed Forces of our country there are no modern missile defense systems / combat systems to combat them.
- However, denunciation of the DRSMD creates new opportunities for Ukraine in the process of finding and implementing "non-reflective" ways, mechanisms and tools to strengthen its defense potential and increase the stability of its national security system in confronting aggression by the RF.
Thus, in particular, the permanent blackmail of Russia by European NATO member states against the use of these Russian missile nuclear weapons will enhance the cooperation of these states and the Alliance in general with Ukraine on strengthening our defense / air defense system. After all, this PRO / air defense will protect not only our country, but also Poland, Romania, Greece, Slovakia and other European countries.
It is obvious that in the present circumstances, this DRSMD has lost its stabilizing role in the field of arms control. So, Ukraine taking into account its national interests It is also advisable to declare withdrawal from DRSMD, in view of Russia's violation of its obligations under this treaty.
Therefore, Ukraine's leadership needs to immediately implement a series of political and military "non-mirror" measures to strengthen the defense of the state in order to neutralize the challenges that will arise in connection with the denunciation of the autumn, without waiting for the final termination of the DRSMD's action. p. of the mentioned agreement.
It is expedient to do this President of Ukraine:
1 To issue a decree on the suspension by our state of the implementation of the Treaty between the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America on the elimination of their medium-range and short-range missiles and the Decision on the participation of the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States in this Treaty from 09.10.1992 until Russia removes its obligations of violation under the said Agreement, or until its termination. Among other things, it is expedient to include in the decree the instruction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine regarding sending to states participating in the State Treasury Department communications on suspension of its implementation by our state.
2 To propose the United States and NATO, in preparing the Alliance's defense responses to the challenges arising from the denunciation of the DRSMD, to foresee:
- Formation of a regional anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense system on the eastern flank of NATO with the involvement of Ukraine in this process;
- conducting multinational missile defense exercises in Ukraine starting from 2020 year;
- the 2020-2021 transmission of 1-2 batteries from the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system to strengthen the missile defense of the capital, Kyiv, in the XNUMX-years of Ukraine.
3 Contact the US with suggestions on:
- Selling Ukraine's 2021-2022 anti-aircraft missile systems Patriot to provide anti-missile defense of important administrative and industrial centers, critical infrastructure objects, military command posts, air and naval bases, arsenals and other objects;
- the deployment of a ground-based Aegis missile defense complex in case of Russia's adoption of the Russian Federation for the deployment of missile complexes with medium-range ground-based hypersonic missiles on its territory (or in the territory of Belarus).
We believe that the results of the proposed measures will significantly enhance the air defense and missile defense of our state, have established closer and more effective cooperation with the US and NATO in these areas, provided a real transition to them in accordance with NATO standards, which in general will contribute to a significant approximation of Ukraine to membership in the Alliance.
Vadim Tyutyunnik, Valentin Gorovenko,
Advisers to the Expert Council of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies