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Parliamentary elections in Moldova: post-facto

Thus, in the 24 of February 2019 in the Republic of Moldova (Moldova), regular parliamentary elections took place. This time they were under the watchful eye of regional and world players, experts and the media, because who would come to power in the country depended on the future architecture of regional cooperation and security in general.

Results and subsequent procedural steps

This year's voting in the RM took place at 2143 polling stations in the middle of the country and at 123 sites abroad. According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), 1 450 335 citizens of Moldova who have the right to vote or 49,17% of the total number of voters came to the polls. Of the total number of those who voted for more women - 53,19%, men 46,81%. Most voters, 31.77% at the age of 56-70 years, 25.65% of voters at the age of 41-55, 25.65% - at the age of 26-40 years. Young people aged 18-25 years were 8.49% of the total number of those who voted, and people older than 71 + year are 8.44%. The demographic structure of the poll shows that the number of voters over the age of 55 years has increased by 5% compared with the previous elections.

At this year's election, approximately 150 thousand people took part less than in the presidential elections in 2016 year and by about 200 thousand less than in parliamentary elections in 2014.

Nevertheless, the previous and not yet final, the distribution of forces in the parliament of the Republic of Moldova by counting the vote on party lists and in single-member districts (50 / 51) is as follows:

  • PSRM (Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova - PSRM) (pro-Russian party) - 35 mandates;
  • DPM (declaring pro-European party of Moldova oligarch Vlad Plakhotnyuk) - 30 mandates;
  • ACUM (until recently, an extra-parliamentary bloc of several parties, including the "Platform" DA "and" Action and Solidarity ") - 26 mandates;
  • Shor (ŞOR) (a populist party with scandalous leader Ilan Shore, accused of involvement in the theft of the "billion") - 7 mandates;
  • Independent candidates - 3.

That is, each of the political forces alone can not form a majority in the parliament without uniting with another party and creating a coalition. The socialists who are in favor of rapprochement with Russia are unlikely to do this, because their opponents follow another development vector. In turn, the ACUM block, declaring that it does not intend to join the coalition, with the PDM, or with the PPPM. Instead, the Democrats expressed their readiness to form a majority in the parliament with all who share their views.

So far, some districts have filed complaints to the court due to violations detected during the vote. In parallel with this, after receiving protocols, the CEC summarizes the voting and, within five days, announces official results. Within a day after collecting the results, he submits to the Constitutional Court (COP) the documents and lists of elected deputies. Within five days after receiving the documents, but not before the final decision by the courts of complaints filed in accordance with established procedures of the law, the CEC concludes that the election is in conformity with or incompatible with the law. At the same time, the Constitutional Court recognizes the valid mandates of elected deputies and confirms the lists of reserve candidates.

If the elections are deemed appropriate by law, the CEC issues a certificate to elected deputies and issues an order for the publication of final election results within 24 hours from the receipt of documents from the COP.

Given the deadlines, most likely in mid-March, the results of the parliamentary elections of February 24 can be confirmed. Thus, the legislature can meet for the first meeting at the end of March.

In the future, politicians should form a parliamentary majority. After consulting the coalition, the president nominates the prime minister. If the common language can not be found between the parties, the president dissolves the parliament. In the future, early elections are held, which in the current conditions may take place along with local elections.

It should be noted separately that on the election day Moldova also held a consultative referendum on the reduction of the number of deputies from 101 to 61, as well as the possibility of withdrawing a mandate from a parliamentarian who fails to cope with his duties. According to the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Moldova, the referendum has passed the required level of appearance and recognized as valid. In fact, this means that in the future these results can be considered in the parliament and implemented. However, this will already be the new composition of the legislative body, which has so far been chosen according to the old principle ...

Observer's reaction

It is important that international observers recognized the elections as being in the framework of the current legislation. So, according to the OSCE, parliamentary races in Moldova were well-documented, while fundamental human rights were respected. The biggest violations were connected with the organization of transportation of Transnistrian voters. Also, the disadvantage was the inability to pass a passport with an expired period of validity. In addition, the OSCE criticized the ruling party for using an administrative resource for election purposes. However, these violations did not affect the entire outcome of the vote.

In turn, the EU Delegation said that the elections held in Moldova for the first time within the framework of the recently introduced mixed election system only confirmed the need to implement the former recommendations of the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe and the OSCE and "continue efforts to bring the electoral legislation in line with international standards" .

Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (PABSEC) and observers from the CIS Executive Committee did not find any serious violations. They were not convinced of significant violations that would have influenced the voting process. After monitoring the counting process, observers stated that the voting procedure was in accordance with the law. ... ..

It should be noted that 25 in February submitted its own assessment of the elections to the association Promo-LEX, a non-governmental, apolitical and nonprofit organization in the Republic of Moldova dealing with human rights issues. The institution conducted a parallel count of votes, which in fact coincided with the estimates of the Central Election Commission of Moldova. The first place was taken by the PSBM, which received 30,83% of votes, the second - the ACUM block with 26,42%. In the third place the Democracy, which gained 24,26% of votes, and the fourth - the political party "SHOR" with 8,48% of votes. At the same time, the Association identified a number of violations that took place, in particular, they concerned the secrecy of voting, photographing ballot papers, bringing voters to polling stations, and the lack of voters in the lists.

Expectations and forecasts

The current election has become, to some extent, the arena of confrontation on the one hand, a powerful state-run machine headed by the DPM, which controls existing state structures, and oligarchic forces with a large financial resource and media capability, and on the other hand, a large part of the population, which, despite the powerful pressure still demonstrated the ability to make their own choice.

Nevertheless, there is no single satisfaction with the results of the elections, either inside Moldova or outside of it. Russia did not receive a pro-Russian parliament in the Republic of Moldova, which would allow it to influence the process in the middle of the country. In turn, the EU and the United States did not receive an exclusively pro-European oriented country that would try to further deepen and expand cooperation within the framework of the Association Agreement. Although the majority of the population supported parties that declare European values ​​and an appropriate vector of development (if conditionally combined - DPM and ACUM). In the middle of the country on the political arena with powerful capabilities there were previous players, including oligarch Vlad Plakhotnyuk, whose policy has many questions not only in Moldova itself ...

Given the current schedule of forces, and the position of politicians, we can confidently say that the process of negotiations and the creation of a coalition will continue in the long run. Each of the political forces, in the first place, the PSBM and the DPM will try to lure to their side the required number of deputies from other political forces and from each other.

The difficult situation for the really pro-European bloc is ACUM, because in fact it is not really possible to form a coalition around it because of fundamental differences with the PSBM and DPM, and even more so with Shore.

Most likely, the "main violin" in the subsequent actions, nevertheless, will play the DPM led by the oligarch Vlad Plakhotnyuk. The existing powerful administrative resource and control over the institutions of power, complicates the process of creating a coalition and its further capacity without democrats. It is not excluded, as predicted earlier, the DPM will unite to create a coalition with the party "Shore", whose leader is on a "hook" to the authorities through financial fraud. In the future, talks will be held with all parties that have passed to parliament - PSBM and ACUM, as well as independent candidates. Whether they can convince democrats will show time. It is unlikely that these parties will go to a coalition with the DPM, since too many "pots" have been broken down to this, however, as the practice of Moldovan parliamentarism shows, it can not be ruled out that individual deputies can run for various reasons to democrats.

If the DPM fails to form a coalition, indeed, it is possible to have extraordinary parliamentary elections. Democrats will thus remain in power and will have a chance to raise their own ratings. At the same time, this is not beneficial for ACUM because the bloc may not collect the indicators that were at the February parliamentary elections.

Of course, we should not exclude other variants of developments - the PSBM and DPM unions that have recently chosen, in fact, a similar course of development "on Moldova", PPDM and ACUM that can create an "anti-oligarchic coalition", etc. However, the likelihood of them is very small.

Separately, it is necessary to dwell on the reaction of the RF, which, on the eve of the election, actively pressured President Dostoev, helped to create his image and, in fact, helped to promote the rating of the PCDM, including the opening of a criminal proceeding on the leader of the DPM, Vlada Plakhotnyuk. Immediately after the election, the first deputy chairman of the Committee of the State Duma of the RF for CIS affairs, Eurasian integration and ties with compatriots Konstantin Zatulin (United Russia party), stated that "Dodon dragged us into this war with Plakhotnyuk and an extraordinary act of this struggle - two days before the election, the statement of the investigative committee on the claims to Plakhotnyuk about the money withdrawn from Russia ". Now, according to Zatulin, there are several options in Dodon: either to create a coalition with Platoitnyuk, and perhaps to regain at least some of his powers, or, if the agreement fails, to remain in the role of "naked king" who does not have the authority as president . If the agreement does not succeed, there will definitely be extraordinary elections in the country. According to him, "the politicians of the near abroad" have learned to use "" nostalgia [of] and its desire to restore ties and relations ".

In addition, he noted: "We somehow paid very little attention to the fact that the Socialists and I.Dodon himself, absolutely in the Transdniestrian issue, are no different from all other Moldovan politicians. So, if we keep and support Transnistria, then we have an irresistible trump, including in order to influence Moldova's policy. If we instead launch in dubious intrigue in the PM elections, we will often be accompanied by disappointment. And this is another disappointment. "

Therefore, unequivocally in this situational around the elections to the parliament of the Republic of Moldova is unique, the country is waiting for a difficult period of political "turbulence". In the future, maybe, or a coalition will be formed, where the election winner will not become a key player, or there will be early parliamentary elections. Time will show. At least it is unlikely that in such a schedule of forces and electoral position of the population it is possible to speak about a fundamental change of the vector of development of the country from pro-European to pro-Russian. Unfortunately, Moldova will remain in the "zone of uncertainty".