Five years of war have dramatically strengthened the defense potential of Ukraine. It is worth noting, first of all, the growth of the consciousness of society, the unification of the nation in the struggle against the enemy, the significant strengthening of the non-power levers of the state: counterintelligence, intelligence agencies, public-private partnerships in the field of information counteraction.
Substantially changed their appearance and capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who have learned successfully respond to tactical challenges hybrid low intensity warfare. Strong MRCs have been created, somewhat strengthened by DSW.
The main achievements of the five years of the war are mainly in the political and diplomatic plane: there is a political support in the form of prolongation and extension of sanctions and military technical assistance (including lethal weapons - Javelin PTRK, in March, the US State Department approved the transfer to Ukraine of 37 PTRK and 210 missiles before them) Harris Radio Equipment Received the NMU Rapid Response Brigade. In December, 2018 USA decided to allocate Ukraine $ 10 million to strengthen the Navy. Also, in December 2018, the Armed Forces of Ukraine handed over coded radio communication devices and portable GPS trackers. In July, 2018 USA decided to allocate 200 million dollars to Ukraine to enhance security, and in September 2018 Ukraine received from the USA two 34-meter patrol boats of the Icelandic class.
The situation in the field of rearmament of the forces of defense has improved, National missile programs and developments have progressed significantly. The cycle of a series of large-scale development of weapons ends, and it is precisely 2019 that should be the first year of real rearmament - the army's acquisition of new high-precision weapon systems - RZZV "Velya", PKR "Neptun". Among other things, a number of local achievements in the field of rearmament and re-equipment of the army (defense forces) were recorded. In particular:
PS of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received the latest mobile automated control system (ACS) by forces and means of aviation, air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Oreanda".
LCC "Luch" produces about 6 000 missiles different calibers per year.
Announced about the launch of 122-mm self-propelled artillery units (AAUs) manufactured by Ukraine 2С1 "Carnation" The trials of new domestic developments are completed - RZSV "Velyka" and 155-mm SAU "Bogdan".
A deep modernization of the 122-mm RZZ BM-21 UM Berest has been implemented (provides for an upgraded control and guidance system).
Motor Sich has installed AFN 23 helicopters MI-8 SME and 10 MI-2 MVB, testing 524R fire control system for Mi-24 combat helicopters.
The work on modernization of the 2 MiG-29 fighters to the level of MiG-29MU1 has been completed. 2018 also planned to introduce the first prototype MiG-29MU2 ...
The local problem of building cases for BTR-3 and BTR-4 is solved. (liquidation of the monopoly of PJSC "Lozovsky Forging and Mechanical Plant" - mastering of the production of shells at the "Malyshev Plant," Morozov KMDB and "Kyiv Armored Plant", the first experimental buildings were created). For example, due to violation of the terms of delivery of armored vehicles, the KBTZ in December fired a million hryvnias of fine for NMU 1,5, and in the benefit of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 1,2 was charged a million hryvnias of fines from Zhytomyr Armored Plant and 2,08 million hryvnas. fine from Prikat AvtoKrAZ.
The solution to the problem of enhancement of air defense has begun: the creation of a new domestic MRC has begun, the modernization of the Soviet era ARS Osa-AKM, ZSU-23-4 "Shilka", the MANUAL "Eagle", "Eagle-1", are deduced from conservation and restoration of the Soviet ZNK of small range 2K12 "Cube" and 9K330 "Tor" . Successful military launches have been carried out and state tests of the modernized OZA-AKM have been completed. Modern radar systems are purchased: the radar blocked by a meter-wavelength range with illumination of air and surface conditions with digital processing and automatic transmission of information P-18 "Malachite" and three-coordinate radar of a round-trip review centimeter range, built on the basis of digital PHA, 79K6 "Pelican" (for 5 years the Airborne Forces Air Force received more than 50 units of the newest and upgraded radar; 1991-2014 units of all 8 units.)
The implementation of the creation programs began new ammunition: 152-mm shells for the Hyacinth from the ARChA "Artem" successfully passed the definitive-departmental tests (capacity up to 18 thousand shells per year).
The problem of strengthening the Navy began to be solved (six small armored artillery boats were introduced, two of which - Berdyansk and Nikopol were seized by 25 in November near the Crimean coast)
Important import issues for Ukraine began to be addressed. In November, Ukraine acquired 6 Turkish reconnaissance drills BAK Bayraktar TB2 and armament to them (announcement of a contract for the purchase of 2 BAC for $ 69, two land control stations and 200 of guided missiles Roketsan MAM-L, a flight duration of up to 24 hours, up to 150 km at an altitude of up to 8100 m, the mass of combat load up to 75 kg). For example, the final stage is in progress acquisition of Canadian sniper rifles for the needs of the Armed Forces units (large batch of large-caliber (50 BMG approximate analog 12,7 mm) of Canadian sniper rifles PGW LRT-3). In addition, Ukraine bought self-propelled trucks howitzers 2С1 "Carnation" Polish production (which was armed with the Czech army).
New approaches to organizing the location of the Armed Forces military units began to be applied: modular field battalion camps and mobile hospitals were being developed.
S-300PT (up to 75 km) and Buk-M1 (up to 35 km), which were restored by the specialists of the Ukroboronservis State Enterprise, as well as C-125М1 (up to 30 km, Lviv Regional Radio Repair Plant), were successfully performed.
69% of state defense order (DOS) in 2018 year was performed by private enterprises.
It is important to note that the level of rearmament of new military equipment is of a mass character in only one position - the supplies of PTRK and missiles produced by the "Luch" DKBB, the remaining new weapons - single purchases or the beginning of production. This is clearly not enough in the context of a real war. Particularly problematic is the situation in the field of provision of the PS of the Armed Forces, in particular, for organizing the confrontation with the attacks of the aggressor from the air. In general, supplies of weapons, which would strategically strengthen the defense potential of Ukraine, did not take place during the five years of the war.
Therefore, a general conclusion, despite the local achievements in strengthening the defense potential - construction of a powerful army as an institution of deterring aggression of the RF has not become a priority of the current authorities of Ukraine. As a result, the army in its current state will not be able to withstand rocket attacks and attacks of combat aircraft of the fourth generation..
Disadvantages of the administrative level.
There are a number of negative tendencies in the area of development of the Armed Forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine remain mainly the workers 'and peasants' army, where, in addition to convinced patriots, young people from the so-called depressed regions, where there are problems with work, go mostly. The outflow of personnel has become disastrous. At the end of the summer 2018 р. It became known that from the beginning of the year more than 11 thousand officers and contractors have resigned from the Armed Forces. Defense Minister Poltorak, in a letter to the prime minister, predicted to lose about 18 thousand troops. Ukraine has a selective prize: in 2018 it is more than 17 thousand people, of which 9010 - for regular service to the Armed Forces. As well as 500 junior commanders, indicating a sharp fall in the prestige of service in the army. Imperfect personnel policy, a serious level of non-military losses, the negative tendencies of alcohol use and suicide develop in the army - all of this testifies to the false paradigm of the development of the Armed Forces. Only in January 2018 in the Armed Forces of the non-military reasons killed 22 servicemen; Of these, 11, and this half (!), committed suicide. Including as a result there is a dangerous (to 30-40%) incomplete set of brigades.
There is still an unannounced embargo on the part of Western countries, which is largely blamed by the Ukrainian authorities. Question of receipt the required US Navy American iceboats "Island" did not decide about three years, and almost a year they were idle in the port of Baltimore.
In general, the administration of the former US president Barack Obama was ready to begin large-scale military-technical cooperation of the United States with Ukraine, but the Ukrainian authorities did not rush to comply with administrative conditions (in particular, to liquidate the State Enterprise "Ukroboronprom").
There are short-sightedness, populist tendencies, or even deliberate distortions of real possibilities. Examples include: before development NPC "Neptune" power returned in January 2016, while in March 2013, a successful test run. That is, a serial missile would already have been in the Armed Forces. Defense Minister Lebedev froze the program before the Russian invasion OSPK "Sapsan", it is still not restored, the government relies on an external contract. In the beginning of February Poltorak called the defense ministry's priorities for the procurement of weapons on the 2018 year tanks "Oplot". (the production cycle of the tank "Oplot" is about a year and a half).
New SKIF "Skif" and "Corsar", despite the fact that hundreds were transferred to the Armed Forces within the framework of the execution of the State Defense Order (DOS), almost did not fall into the pre-February 2018 year.
The authorities did not provide opportunities to fully utilize the potential of the defense industry, did not care enough about the PTS with foreign states, has not yet solved the problem of Ukraine's participation in the MTCR - the permission for the production of missiles only to a range up to 500 km.
There was not created a single government body for the formation of the state defense and industrial policy, the shortcomings of the formation of DOS were not eliminated, the system of financing new defense technologies was not created. Moreover, 2018 became a year of extremely negative phenomena that could destroy the potential of the defense industry. In particular, a contract was signed with French helicopter manufacturers in the amount of about 550 million euros, which together with interest on the loan will delay almost 700 million euros from the Ukrainian budget. The Ministry of Internal Affairs chose the delivery of 55 French helicopters (of which 21 is used) despite the presence of a domestic manufacturer - Motor Sich JSC and dozens of companies - allied companies. The fact that the Parliament passed a deal in a blind spot without access to documents demonstrates the introduction of powerful manipulative mechanisms that allow not taking into account the interests of domestic enterprises.
Challenges and what can and should be done urgently
UAF - Change the format of the army construction. The events of the last few years, and especially the 2018 of the year, with the tendency to reduce patriotism, the fall in the prestige of the service and the substantial outflow of personnel, indicate the need to start the formation of a new type of professional army, in which the terms of service should be close to the western standard. It eliminates social inequality in the form of an election appeal, transforms the service into a competitive place in the labor market, where a young person can count on the realization of a career.
It is necessary to include administrative levers for changing the situation and forming motivation for the service. Among these refusal to provide servicemen with housing, radical reconstruction of the military education system, modernization of the logistics system, including military commissions, the creation of a network of training centers for soldiers, sergeants and officers. It will release a gigantic multi-millionth resource (if you add to this the implementation of a significant part of the objects and assets of the Ministry of Defense) - it can be directed to the development of the modern-day Armed Forces.
The Armed Forces should get rid of unusual functions - everything that does not directly relate to direct preparation for war. Most importantly - direct resources to change the quality of units and units of high readiness, which eliminates a dangerous set of combat brigades. The resource involved will also eliminate the traditional defensive budget imbalance when more than 70% of funds are spent on staff retention. And such measures will be cut off from the army of unmotivated people. As a result, non-pit loss, which today is a frightening percentage, will decrease. Drinking will disappear in parts, suicide statistics will change sharply. If a soldier and a sergeant will receive 30% of the average wage per country, and after 15 years of service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to retire a few years earlier, fixed in the state of retirement age, solve the housing problem at the expense of the state, receive a decent pension and provide free education their children, the army will reach far not only young people from regions where it is impossible to find a decent job.
For active rearmament of the army, it is necessary to intensify missile programs - the creation of an operational-tactical missile complex "Sapsan" and an anti-ship missile "Neptune". To accelerate the development of an average range of MRCs, as well as to increase supplies to the combat units of the anti-tank guided missile complexes "Stugna", adopted in the 2011 year.
At the same time, the creation of a new type of UAF implies a gradual reduction of personnel (primarily due to the gradual abandonment of the call, a reduction in the number of contract staff with a parallel refusal from the non-compliant 90-100% brigades, as well as a certain reduction in the structures for securing, improving and reducing the network of military educational institutions and research institutions with an emphasis on the system of preparatory specialist courses) and ensuring the effect of capacity development at the expense of modern armaments and training units, staffed DATA on the principles of a professional army. Only such an approach would allow balance of defense budgets (in particular, do not spend on staffing more than 70% of the defense budget, as now) and ensure uninterrupted funding of tasks for personnel reinforcement and combat training of the army, re-equipment of troops with new and upgraded military equipment and armaments. The decision should be put into effect by a decree of the head of state, and the control is entrusted to the same NSDCU, with the foreseen involvement in the assessment not only of the profile parliamentary committee, but also of non-governmental organizations and experts.
Thus, according to the definition and calculations of the authors of this study, it is envisaged that the overall optimal number of the Armed Forces of the 2025 sample will be at the level 208 thousand people (of which 180 thousand military personnel and 28 thousand employees of the Armed Forces) - with the foreseen possibility of decreasing the number of the Armed Forces in the future, due to qualitative rearmament and in the event of the termination (freezing) of the war with Russia, within the next three to four years after 2025 p., Up to 198 ths. People (174 - 24).
Since the Ukrainian state does not have excess resources, it must use additional incentives to conclude or extend the contract. This includes the right to receive free education by the military servant or members of his family after five years of service under the contract (including the military department, which translates it into the category of officers), as well as the possibility of obtaining a certificate for housing. It is proposed to use a coefficient that operates after 10 years of service of a serviceman. After 15 years of service, a serviceman gets an opportunity to purchase an apartment with an equivalent in the medium-static region at the expense of the state. After 20 years of service the volume of the certificate allows you to count on a purchase without paying housing in the regional center. It is also advisable to consider the possibility of early retirement due to service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (it is proposed to use a coefficient that operates after five years of service of a serviceman).
The total projected amount of average annual costs will be 4,0-4,7 billion dollars., which is slightly more than 1,5 times, exceeds the cost of 2018 year. However, these costs do not include the above-mentioned procurement of foreign air defense systems. But they can be procured through Ukraine's lending to the supplier of weapons, or by delaying payments, which is the subject of negotiations and the joint work of politicians, diplomats, and special services.
OPK Support instead of "squeeze". This is what has the potential to make the army strong. You need to get started the only governmental body for the formation of state defense-industrial policy - a ministry or agency with a profile deputy prime minister or even president at the head. Such a body will provide a fair solution to the whole spectrum of tasks and controversial issues. For example, what weapons to design and produce by the forces of the domestic defense industry, which are imported, but by the formation of joint ventures with foreign companies. And also for introducing new technologies, unification and certification of weapons, well, and, of course, for streamlining defense procurement for all 16 domestic customers. For its system work and analytical support it would be logical to create a scientific and technical committee and the Institute of General Designers. One of the key issues for the future is solving the task of financing development and implementation of new defense technologies. In 2018, an analogue of the US Department of Defense's Advanced Research Projects Project, known as DARPA, was created in Ukraine. The case is right, but the system of financing and technology selection is still foggy - it is important to create a planning system and a transparent mechanism for selecting promising technologies.
Another issue that requires an immediate solution is the liberalization of foreign economic activity for enterprises of all forms of ownership. The start of this process has already been given - there is a decree of the President of Ukraine (No. 185 / 2018 from 26 June 2018 years), it is important to put it into practice. This step along with the adoption of the Law of Ukraine on military-technical cooperation will create conditions for the arrival in Ukraine of foreign companies with new technologies. Because they will allow them to freely sell on defense markets third-country defense products produced over government defense orders. It is extremely important to legislate to prohibit duplicate arms imports that could undermine the potential of the national defense.
Among other, liberalization of foreign economic activity would allow to increase the inflow of foreign exchange resources for enterprises, which, in turn, would allow them to accelerate the implementation of the state defense order. In order not to stop work in the "vacuum period" - between the signing of the state defense order and contracts with enterprises.
Some more seemingly small, but, in fact, extremely important issues. For example, it is necessary increase the rate of profit within the framework of the state defense order (at least to the level of "5-30", that is, 5% - for foreign components in the manufactured weapons, 30% - for work on the production itself) to allow managers of domestic and potential joint ventures to think about the development, modernization of existing and time.
I think that a state of wartime is capable of solving puzzle with loans to perform state defense orders. Namely, to reduce the percentage of 18 bonded, at least 9-10 perishable percentages per annum. And yet to refuse from the customs duty when importing to the defense enterprises the necessary modern equipment, high-precision machine tools.
It is equally important to redirect the work of the military representative offices to the quality control of armaments. From the functions of military reception it is necessary to exclude the harmonization of calculation and calculation materials (RCM). In general, such anachronism as the RCM, can only be applied to the defense industry enterprises that are monopolists. Why is it not a sign of limiting the competitiveness potential of domestic defense industry to the fact that when purchasing foreign armaments, nobody from foreign suppliers does not require this notorious RCM? By the way, and for the investor, RCM remains a deterrent factor in entering the Ukrainian market.
Finally, you need to move away from the place necessary for development processes like restructuring, corporatization and privatization of defense enterprises. Again, the first decisions have already appeared - to transfer to the State Property Fund for the implementation of about three dozen enterprises in fact "Ukroboronproma" - it is necessary to prove the begun to the effective mechanism.
It would be best to consolidate changes in the country's defense and industrial policy by amending a number of laws or adopting new ones. For example, it is quite obvious that the new edition requires the Law of Ukraine "On State Defense Order." In order to create adequate conditions for the development of the Army and the Defense Forces, it is necessary to adopt laws "On the Establishment and Manufacture of Ammunition, Arms, Military and Special Equipment," "On Military-Technical Cooperation of Ukraine with Foreign States," "On Public-Private Partnerships" (the latest version of the project is entitled "On guaranteeing the rights of investors and attracting private investment under the conditions of application of the mechanism of public-private partnership in the defense-industrial complex", "On offset agreements".
It should be understood that Russia's hostility toward Ukraine will take place for many years. It is not excluded, the next decade. From the 2005, the Kremlin systematically and continuously engaged in anti-Ukrainian propaganda at all levels, imposing this paradigm on the Russian inhabitant. For more than a decade, the Kremlin has systematically prepared the people of Russia for a war with Ukraine (I would remind you that in the spring of 2008 in the world a symptomatic opus on the topic of occupation and physical destruction of Ukraine appeared - entitled "Operation Mechanical Orange"). Ukraine has no right to remain an easy prey for any aggressor, even if it possesses nuclear weapons. And for this we have enough opportunities - to turn the army into an institution of deterrence and to create an asymmetric countermeasure weapon. And to create a space of prosperity and high opportunities for citizens, which is intended to demonstrate in reality a deadlock and short-sighted choice of the Putin Kremlin.
Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies (CEDAW)
 The main financial document of the country provides for the financing of the army at 2019 year in the amount of 2,55% of GDP, which is even less than in 2018 year. The main item of expenditure, which will grow by almost 39%, will be an increase in the fund of cash and wages. Such an approach to the formation of these costs returns the army in the past, since it does not change the structure of monetary support, which will again be based on the commitment of commanders and bosses: who to pay 100% of the premium, and who to leave on an unpainted bare salary. ZN # 1220, November 24 2018
 The authors of the project are in positions that are well-motivated, armed, and equipped with defense forces (with the core of the professional Armed Forces, the National Armed Forces and the SBGS, with the existing mobilization reserve and the established effective territorial defense system) with a total population of more than 200 thousand (with the potential for bringing in several months of the army's strength to 300-350 thousand at the time of a widespread war) is a better indicator than the existing AFS with a bloated state, incomplete, conditional rearmament and incomplete motivation - to perform deterrence. According to the White Paper - 2018 As of the beginning of the 2018 year in Ukraine, an operational reserve of the number of persons liable to military use has been set at about 140 thousand, of which more than 113 thousand are assigned to the operational reserve of the first stage of the brigades and regiments. The total number, according to the statement of the Minister of Defense S. Poltorak 4 March 2018, is 255 thousand people.