4 December 2018 is a reputable institution in the Republic of Moldova (Institutul de Politici Publice) - Institute of Public Policy) unveiled results of the November poll "Barometer of public opinion » (BHD) *. Policies, experts and analysts are guided by the Institute for many years, both in the Republic of Moldova and adjacent countries, because it reflects the most realistic situation surrounding public opinion in the country.
Thus, the poll showed that if the parliamentary elections were held in the coming weekend, five parties would have passed in the legislative body of the Republic of Moldova - the PPPM (Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova), the DPM (Democratic Party of Moldova), the party "Action and Solidarity" (Partidul Acţiune şi solidaritate - PAS), "Platform for Dignity and Truth" (Demnitate şi adevăr - DA) and "Shore". At that, according to the Socialists, 23% of those polled would vote for the Democracy, 7,6%, «Action and solidarity» - 7,4%, «Platform of Dignity and Truth» party - 5%, Shore party - 3%. The rest would have scored at most 2%.
The new BGD showed that in recent months, the authorities have strengthened their positions, and the opposition, on the contrary, has somewhat deteriorated. Socialist and Democrat indicators grew by 5% and 4%, respectively, in PAS - dropped by 4,4%, while the number of DA supporters increased slightly (by 2,9%).
However, according to the 57,5 BGD,% of the respondents do not know how the updated system of elections in single-mandate constituencies works and what it means in general. After all, in February the elections will be held for the first time in a mixed electoral system: 50 deputies will be elected by party lists, 51 - in single-mandate constituencies. Only 37,6%, respondents said they know what it is.
Due to the fact that most citizens do not understand voting procedures for the new system, and how their votes will be counted, mass abuses may take place on election day. It also contributes to the fact that the lifting of restrictions on campaigning on election day has recently been. Therefore, it is not excluded that people will be explained to people just about the entrance to the polls, as well as "for whom" to vote.
At the same time, on the question of who you are ready to vote in your one-seat constituency, 33,8% of those polled said that for candidates from political parties, 27,1% - for independent candidates.
At the same time, a rather high percentage of respondents did not decide on the choice or not vote at all - 49%. The share of such responses has increased significantly since May this year, when this figure was 34%. It is in their voices that the struggle will unfold during election campaigning.
Particular attention should be paid to some aspects of BHD. Most respondents admitted that they do not believe that the elections in Moldova are conducted freely and in accordance with the law. So, 76,5% of those polled said. Only 14,6% believe that the country's elections are held democratically, and 8,9% could not answer.
Most respondents said they could not freely express their views on power. 31% of respondents feel this in themselves, and 28,5% feel that they can not speak at all. Do they feel quite free in the statements of 29% of those polled, and absolutely free - 6,7%.
The situation with protests is even more complicated. Feel free to protest against the decisions of the authorities 6,2% of the polled, largely free - 25,1%. Generally, they do not see the ability to freely test 33,4% of respondents, and another 29,6% believe that this right is limited.
Most residents of Moldova, according to the poll, are confident that the country is governed not in the interests of its citizens. So answered 83,7% of those polled. Only 9,1% of respondents read that the government acts in the interests of the people. Another 7,2% could not answer this question.
In fact, the study confirms expert assessments of the future composition of the parliament of the Republic of Moldova and points out that the PSBM will win the next election. However, there is no clear answer yet as to whether the Socialists will receive an absolute majority in Parliament because of the high percentage of those who have not been identified and the DPM's ability to improve its position during voting in single-member districts. Most likely "no" than "yes", but the situation may change substantially in almost three months before the election. Even in spite of the New Year holidays.
Experts of the Central Research Institute of Chemistry have already made some forecasts regarding the possible development of events (you can get acquainted here) and they are largely confirmed by the results of the BHD.
However, the most likely scenarios are:
- Coalition of PPDM and DPM (the country will move on a course "on Moldova" with a slope towards the Russian Federation). In this case, an interesting situation will be around the party "Shore", which is associated with the leader of the PDM Vlad Plakhotnyuk. She, most likely, can become a situational partner in the parliament in case of advancement and making decisions necessary to the authorities.
- Lack of coalition due to political disputes and existing antagonism and, consequently, another, already extraordinary, parliamentary elections.
Given the current poll, the coalition of pro-European opposition parties "Action and Solidarity" (Partidul Acţiune şi solidaritate - PAS) and "Demnitate şi adevăr - DA" will not be able to significantly change the situation because of the inability to form a majority in the parliament It is not really possible for them to join the Shore party and the DPM, just as with the PPPM, which oppositionists associate with Vlad Plakhotnyuk.
The absence of a coalition in the parliament after the election is possible if the DPPM and DPM will not be able to find a common language. And this is quite realistic, because the socialists, having received the majority after the elections, will want to influence the future policy of the state and will actively oppose the attempts by the smaller number of DPM to influence decision-making.
One should also consider one more important factor - the RF, which is already being gradually drawn into more active actions within the framework of parliamentary election races. One of the last gestures of the Kremlin, made at the request of the President of the Republic of Moldova I.Dodona, is an "amnesty of migration" for Moldovan citizens illegally staying in Russia, and this is a fairly significant electorate that will support the PSDM and its pro-Russian course ...
In fact, the BGD has confirmed that the main battles in the electoral parliamentary race are still ahead. However, its participants - leaders and outsiders have already been identified. The reality is that the elections in the Republic of Moldova will really change the situation in the country. This is due both to domestic factors and to the growing participation of the Kremlin in the electoral race.
* The survey was conducted with 9 by November 23 among residents of different settlements of the country. It was attended by a 1115 man. The maximum possible error is 3%.