21 November 2018 year, CACDS participated (in video conference mode) in a round table on "Republic of Moldova at the crossroads. West or East ", which was held by Romanian partners - the New Strategy Center in Bucharest.
Within the framework of this event, the Ukrainian expert - the head of the Danube sector of the CACDS - the editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian Defense Review ICC Defense Express Anton Mikhnenko, was provided with an expert assessment of the political situation in the Republic of Moldova, prospects for resolving the Transnistria conflict after the February 2019 elections in Moldova, the Kremlin's plans in Transnistria and in the occupied Donbass.
Thus, in particular, the expert noted that the complexity of the situation in the Republic of Moldova (RM) is determined by the high probability of changes in external guidelines after the parliamentary elections in February 2019 year.
At the same time, in the Ukrainian expert environment, a number of possible scenarios of events after the election race are being considered:
- a coalition of the pro-Russian Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova (PPDM) (I.Dodona) and the Democratic Party of Moldova (PPM) (V.Plachotnyuk);
- the victory of the PSDM (the pro-Russian forces receive the majority of the mandates in the parliament and take decisions individually;
- party alliance against the DPM (PSDM association with other parties of the Republic of Moldova, which will be held in parliament, in particular on the European Platform DA (A.Nestase) and Action and Solidarity (M.Sandu).
- Permanent parliamentary crisis (absence of a coalition majority in the legislative body of the country and as a result of regular elections).
Currently, the most probable scenario of the development of events is the union of PSDM and DPM, since, as a result of the elections, the DPM will have priority in majoritarian districts, and the PSBM will be on party lists. And although Igor Dodon has repeatedly stated that it is impossible to create a coalition of PSDM and PSA, in practice the picture may be somewhat different. For example, these parties repeatedly voted on the same issues on a number of issues that were of interest to both political forces (in particular, amendments to electoral law). Also, they have virtually the only paradigm of further development for a country based on the course of "Moldovanism" (own path of development for Moldova). In the end, according to estimates of Moldovan experts, PMP leader Vladimir Plakhotnyuk has a direct influence on Igor Dodon.
Such an alignment of forces will, of course, have an impact on the country's foreign policy, first of all, in relations with the European Union. At the moment, Brussels is disappointed with the reforms in the country, the level of democratic freedoms, the pressure on the opposition, and so on. And after the election, the situation in relations can only deteriorate. Instead, the cooperation with the Russian Federation will obviously be an impetus, since the Social Democratic Union will try to compensate for the loss of the European vector by deepening its relations with Russia.
Regarding the Transnistria conflict, the expert noted that the Ukrainian expert environment believes that the purpose of the Russian Federation is the federalization of Moldova, where each subject of the federation can influence the foreign policy of the state. Today, the pro-Russian president came to power, and after the 2019 elections, a pro-Russian parliament could be formed. In the future, the possible scenario of the development of events is the federalization of Moldova, which will be demonstrated to the world community as a possible "way to resolve the conflict in the Donbass".
Regarding the relations between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, the expert noted that in the case of the formation of the pro-Russian parliament, one should expect the deterioration of relations between Kyiv and Chisinau. In addition, the Ukrainian side will have to strengthen its military presence on the border with Moldova. Because Kyiv will regard the RM as a territory of Russian influence, which can be used for military aggression against Ukraine.
Participation in the event was also attended by representatives of the Romanian and Moldavian expert environment. Among them are the President of the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives IDIS Viitorul (Republic of Moldova) Igor Munteanu, the member of the New Strategy Center (Romania) Dan Dungaciu, former Romanian Foreign Minister, chairman of the New Strategy Center (Romania) Sergiu Celac and Director of the Center for the Prevention of Conflict (Romania) Iulian Chifu.